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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

Militant attacks stop an industrial gold mine in western or southern Mali for two weeks

The test Before 1 Nov 2027, an attack or blockade by armed groups halts an industrial gold mine in the Kayes, Koulikoro or Sikasso regions for 14 days or more (company or official statement, or two sources).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute2
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Industrial gold output 23.5 t in H1 2026, up over 30%; 43.2 t forecast for 2026 (mines minister) [3]
  2. The army said it retook Kidal with Russian support [5]

Why it matters

Mali's industrial gold mines sit in the Kayes, Koulikoro and Sikasso regions. Militants attacked three mine sites in the weeks to 12 Jan 2026, without a reported stoppage. Output is still rising, but JNIM's 2025 fuel blockade showed it can choke supply.

Why Likelihood 4 Brakes: output rising, army gains.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case: one mine halted 14 days.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Militants attacked the Kalana, Deso and Morila mine sites in the weeks to 12 Jan 2026 (Morila on 3 and 4 Jan) and burned cement, lime and tile plants in Kayes region on 11 Jan; no formal stoppage reported [1] (12 Jan 2026)
  • Bellingcat verified six JNIM attacks from 14 Sep to 6 Nov 2025 that destroyed more than 130 fuel tankers, the first in Kayes region [2] (3 Dec 2025)
  • JNIM announced a blockade of the routes to Bamako and Kati [4] (1 May 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Militant attacks stop an industrial gold mine in western or southern Mali for two weeks. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Militant attacks stop an industrial gold mine in western or southern Mali for two weeksImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Mali
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · MALI · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Before 1 Nov 2027, an attack or blockade by armed groups halts an industrial gold mine in the Kayes, Koulikoro or Sikasso regions for 14 days or more (company or official statement, or two sources).

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Mali's revenueA two-week halt at one mine would cut output and royalties (Strature's view).
  3. Mining sectorA halt would raise security and fuel costs for every industrial mine in the belt (Strature's view).

Sectors 2

  • Mining and metals
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 1

  • Mali primary

Who is exposed

Countries
Mali
Sectors
Mining and metals, Ports and logistics

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Contained

    Attacks continue but mines keep working.

  2. S2

    Fuel squeeze

    A new blockade starves mines of diesel.

  3. S3

    Halt

    A direct attack stops a mine for weeks.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Full-year 2026 output reaches 43.2 t
S2Tankers burned on the Kayes roads again
S3A company or ministry statement of suspension

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jan 2027 Full-year 2026 gold output report [3] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 1 Nov 2027 End of scored window [3] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · MALI · strature.net

The other side

Industrial gold output rose over 30% in H1 2026 despite the attacks [3], which shows mines can be defended and keep producing.

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Mali: Comment et pourquoi des jihadistes ont attaqué trois sites industriels de la région de Kayes. RFI via AllAfrica · 12 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Mali under siege: tracking the fuel blockade crippling Bamako. Bellingcat · 3 Dec 2025 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Mali: la production industrielle d'or bondit de plus de 30% au premier semestre 2026. Le360 Afrique with MAP · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Jihadists urge united front against Mali junta as Bamako blockade begins. France 24 with AFP · 1 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Mali's army says it has taken Kidal from Tuareg rebels, with Russia's help. Al Jazeera · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks