Assimi Goïta stops being Mali's head of state
The test Before 1 Nov 2027, Assimi Goïta stops being Mali's head of state by any route: a coup, death, resignation, or a transition deal with armed groups.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
Why it matters
Mali's military government survived a joint jihadist and separatist offensive in April 2026 that killed its defence minister and put Bamako under blockade. JNIM has called openly for a front to bring down the junta. The army says it retook Kidal with Russian help in October.
Why Likelihood 4 A yes: JNIM's call to bring down the junta. Pushes: the blockade, a minister killed, northern losses. Brakes: Bamako held after April, Russian forces, the army back in Kidal.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case: a change of head of state.
The other facts on file (3)
- Joint attacks on the weekend of 25-26 Apr 2026 killed Defence Minister Sadio Camara; JNIM announced a blockade of Bamako and Kati and on 30 Apr called for a common front to bring down the junta; hundreds of vehicles stranded on the Conakry, Abidjan and Dakar roads [1] (1 May 2026)
- FLA claimed total control of Kidal; a source close to the governor said jihadists and the FLA held it [2] (28 Apr 2026)
- Bellingcat verified six attacks from 14 Sep to 6 Nov 2025 that destroyed more than 130 fuel tankers in JNIM's blockade [4] (3 Dec 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Assimi Goïta stops being Mali's head of stateImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Mali
How it spreads
Before 1 Nov 2027, Assimi Goïta stops being Mali's head of state by any route: a coup, death, resignation, or a transition deal with armed groups.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- The Sahel blocA fall in Bamako would test the Russia-aligned alliance with Burkina Faso and Niger (Strature's view).
- Trade corridorsThe Dakar, Abidjan and Conakry roads carry Mali's trade.
- GoldA change of power would reopen mining terms and security.
Sectors 2
- Mining and metals
- Ports and logistics
Countries 7
- Mali primary
- Burkina Faso
- Niger
- Senegal
- Ivory Coast
- Guinea
- Algeria
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Senegal, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Algeria
- Sectors
- Mining and metals, Ports and logistics
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Junta holds
Russian support and the Kidal recapture steady Bamako.
- S2
Palace change
Officers replace Goïta to save the regime.
- S3
Collapse or deal
Armed pressure forces a transition.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Roads to Bamako reopen |
| S2 | A cabinet purge or arrests in the army |
| S3 | A new blockade of Bamako's fuel |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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Connected in Strature
- Algeria
- Militant attacks stop an industrial gold mine in western or southern Mali for two weeks Drives: The same armed campaign threatens the mining belts.
- JNIM carries out a deadly attack inside Mauritania Shares a channel: JNIM's spread into neighbouring states.
- One attack in northern Benin kills 20 or more soldiers Shares a channel: JNIM's southern front.
- Burkina Faso takes over another industrial gold mine Shares a channel: The same Sahel bloc and gold belt.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Jihadists urge united front against Mali junta as Bamako blockade begins. France 24 with AFP · 1 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mali: Rebels Now in Control of Key Mali Town After Attacks. Daily Trust via AllAfrica · 28 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mali's army says it has taken Kidal from Tuareg rebels, with Russia's help. Al Jazeera · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mali under siege: tracking the fuel blockade crippling Bamako. Bellingcat · 3 Dec 2025 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mali: la production industrielle d'or bondit de plus de 30% au premier semestre 2026. Le360 Afrique with MAP · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks