Guinea-Bissau's junta puts off the 6 Dec 2026 elections past 31 Mar 2027
The test The presidential and legislative votes set for 6 Dec 2026 do not take place by 31 Mar 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ 8 Oct 2026: the transition Prime Minister and the electoral commission say the 6 Dec vote cannot be held.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Soldiers seized power on 26 Nov 2025, the day before provisional results were due, and suspended the electoral process [3]
- 8 Oct 2026: PM Ilidio Vieira Te said there are no conditions for the 6 Dec vote; candidates missed the 6 Oct filing deadline; no new date; new constitution approved in August 2026 [2]
- 8 Oct 2026: electoral commission vice-president said technical conditions are not met; postponement is for the transition president [3]
Why it matters
Soldiers took power in Guinea-Bissau on 26 Nov 2025 and later set presidential and legislative elections for 6 Dec 2026. On 8 Oct 2026 the transition Prime Minister said there are no conditions to hold them, and set no new date. The open question is how long the delay runs.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: two named, current official sources treat a delay as the base case; no new date; missed candidacy deadline. Brakes: no source speaks to the 31 Mar 2027 line; ECOWAS pressure.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case no vote by 31 Mar 2027.
The other facts on file (1)
- Decree of 21 Jan 2026 set 6 Dec 2026 for both votes; transition head may not run; ECOWAS asked for a short transition [1] (22 Jan 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Guinea-Bissau's junta puts off the 6 Dec 2026 elections past 31 Mar 2027Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated. · Guinea-Bissau
How it spreads
The presidential and legislative votes set for 6 Dec 2026 do not take place by 31 Mar 2027.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Regional standingA longer military transition keeps Guinea-Bissau at odds with ECOWAS's call for a short transition [1].
- SecurityThe country is a drug-trafficking hub between Latin America and Europe [1]; a longer military rule leaves it under the same government (Strature's view).
Sectors 2
- Agriculture and food
- Ports and logistics
Countries 3
- Guinea-Bissau primary
- Senegal
- Guinea
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Guinea
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Short slip
A new date in the first quarter of 2027.
- S2
Long transition
A new timetable runs into mid or late 2027.
- S3
No date
The junta governs under the new constitution without a fixed date.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A decree setting a date before 31 Mar 2027 |
| S2 | A transition charter or decree with a later date |
| S3 | No decree by the end of January 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 6 Dec 2026 Original election day (government says it cannot be held) [1] Declared · Outside event
- 31 Mar 2027 Line in this card's event [1] Declared · Strature date
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
A short, well-prepared delay could give a cleaner vote than a rushed one; the commission said technical conditions are lacking [3]. ECOWAS pressure could set a near date (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- A losing candidate takes Gambia's 5 Dec 2026 presidential result to the Supreme Court Shares a channel: A neighbouring West African vote in December 2026 under ECOWAS attention (Strature's view).
Sources
3 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Guinea-Bissau sets election date following last year's coup. Al Jazeera · 22 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Guinea-Bissau to delay elections following last year's coup. Reuters via Internazionale · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Bissau : conditions pas reunies pour organiser les elections le 6 decembre (Commission electorale). Le360 Afrique (AFP) · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks