TAPI gas does not reach Herat by end-October 2027
The test By 31 Oct 2027, no Turkmen gas has flowed through the TAPI pipeline to Herat, as stated by the Turkmen or Afghan government.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
Why it matters
The first leg of the TAPI pipeline, from the Turkmen border to Herat, was about 80% complete in October 2026, and Turkmen officials aim to commission it by the end of 2026. Price, volumes and a Herat distribution network are still open. The risk is that no Turkmen gas flows to Herat by end-October 2027.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: open price, volume and legal framework; no Herat distribution network; no supply date. Brake: ten months of buffer after the end-2026 target.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case first gas delayed past 31 Oct 2027.
The other facts on file (1)
- Herat governor expected commissioning within two months; 10 Aug memorandum sets no price or volume; distribution network still to be built; capacity 33 bcm a year [3] (27 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- TAPI gas does not reach Herat by end-October 2027Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Turkmenistan
How it spreads
By 31 Oct 2027, no Turkmen gas has flowed through the TAPI pipeline to Herat, as stated by the Turkmen or Afghan government.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Turkmen exportsHerat would be Turkmenistan's first TAPI sale; most gas now goes to China [2][3].
- Herat's energyGas meant for industry, power plants and households [3].
- The southern legsAfghanistan's TAPI office says the leg towards Kandahar needs more investment [1]; a slip would weaken that case (Strature's view).
Goods 1
- Natural gas
Sectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 2
- Turkmenistan primary
- Afghanistan
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Turkmenistan, Afghanistan
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- Natural gas
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
First gas in 2027
Commissioning in early 2027 and a sales contract follow.
- S2
Commissioned, no sales
The pipe is filled but no contract or network exists.
- S3
Security stop
Fighting or funding gaps halt work.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A signed price and volume |
| S2 | No distribution tender in Herat |
| S3 | Works suspended near Herat |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 Target to commission the Herat section [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
First gas in Herat would give Turkmenistan a second export route and Afghanistan its first imported pipeline gas (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Pakistan strikes Kabul again Driven by: The later legs cross the Pakistan-Afghanistan front.
- Torkham stays shut to commercial cargo Shares a channel: Both depend on Afghanistan's links south to Pakistan.
Sources
3 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- TAPI Pipeline segment to Herat is nearly 80% complete, Turkmenistan says. News Central Asia (nCa) · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Turkmenistan making moves to diversify energy exports. Eurasianet via Eurasia Review · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- TAPI pipeline moves closer to first gas sales in Afghanistan. The Times of Central Asia · 9 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks