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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Torkham stays shut to commercial cargo

The test The Torkham crossing is closed to routine commercial cargo for at least 30 days in a row between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027 (the closure in force on 1 Nov 2026 counts; humanitarian or UN cargo alone does not end it).

Under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
8High steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth2
Duration7
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Pakistan says strikes against militant bases in Afghanistan will continue [4]
  2. Pakistan closed nearly a dozen crossings on 12 Oct 2025; trade suspended a year at all five major crossings including Torkham [1]
  3. Lost Pakistani exports about US$1bn (Sarhadi); Afghan transit goods US$6.7bn in 2023 to US$367m in 2026 (customs officials) [1]

Why it matters

Pakistan closed its land crossings with Afghanistan after deadly clashes on 12 Oct 2025, and a year later trade was still suspended at all five major crossings, Torkham among them. Pakistan's interior minister said in August that crossings would reopen, but no reopening to trade was confirmed. The question is whether the closure persists.

Why Likelihood 8 Not 9-10: the interior minister's 8 Aug reopening statement, China's Urumqi channel and Russia's mediation offer are routes to an exit.

The other facts on file (2)
  • Only Torkham, Spin Boldak and Bahramcha open, for returning Afghan migrants only; Naqvi's reported reopening decision not confirmed [2] (9 Aug 2026)
  • Urumqi talks ended with a pledge not to escalate; clashes near Torkham on 28 Feb 2026 [3] (9 Apr 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Torkham stays shut to commercial cargo. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. Under way.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Torkham stays shut to commercial cargoImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 8 of 10, High. · Afghanistan · Under way
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · AFGHANISTAN · strature.net

How it spreads

If

The Torkham crossing is closed to routine commercial cargo for at least 30 days in a row between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027 (the closure in force on 1 Nov 2026 counts; humanitarian or UN cargo alone does not end it).

Under way now

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Pakistani exportsAbout US$1bn of exports to Afghanistan lost; poultry exports near zero [1].
  3. Afghan transitTransit goods fell from US$6.7bn in 2023 to US$367m in 2026; Karachi transit earned about US$160m a year [1].
  4. Central Asia routePakistan's land exports to Central Asia disrupted; cotton and legumes dearer [1].

Sectors 2

  • Ports and logistics
  • Agriculture and food

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Afghanistan, Pakistan
Sectors
Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Closure holds

    Trade stays shut while strikes continue.

  2. S2

    Phased reopening

    Pakistan opens Torkham to trade under a security deal.

  3. S3

    Wider seal

    Migrant returns also stop.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Another Pakistani strike in Afghanistan
S2An official notice of reopening, not a ministerial remark
S3The three open crossings close to people

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · AFGHANISTAN · strature.net

The other side

Reopening would restore about US$1bn of Pakistani exports and Karachi transit fees [1]; both sides have a commercial interest in a deal (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Families Torn Apart, Trade At A Standstill: One Year Of The Afghan-Pakistan Border Closure. RFE/RL · 4 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Pakistan to Reopen Border Crossings and Transit Routes with Afghanistan. KabulNow · 9 Aug 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. Afghanistan and Pakistan agree to explore a solution after weeks of fighting and hundreds of deaths. Arab News Pakistan (AP) · 9 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. At Moscow talks, Pakistan says will continue actions against militant bases in Afghanistan. Arab News Pakistan · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks