Kenya rations fuel or its petrol cover falls below 10 days
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Kenya's government orders fuel rationing, or official figures put petrol stocks below 10 days of use.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Kenya buys most of its fuel from the Gulf under a government-to-government deal, and its petrol cover fell to 16 days in spring 2026. Diesel reached a record price in May. Reserves of about six months of imports and supply loaded from India and Europe have so far kept the pumps open.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: Gulf dependence; 16 days of petrol in April 2026; record diesel price in May 2026. Brakes: reserves of 6.1 months of imports; a quarter of government fuel supply from India and Europe; stabilisation fund.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case a rationing order or one low stock reading.
The other facts on file (4)
- Stocks of 16 days of petrol, 19 of diesel, 49 of jet fuel and kerosene (CS Mbadi); stabilisation fund of about KSh17bn; suppliers loading from Europe and India [1] (2 Apr 2026)
- Diesel at a record KSh242.92 a litre in Nairobi [2] (14 May 2026)
- Middle East met 77% of Kenya's oil use (IEA data) [4] (2024)
- UAE and Saudi Arabia 62.6% of G-to-G fuel imports in the year to June 2026; India and Europe 25.26% (EPRA data) [5] (30 Jun 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Kenya rations fuel or its petrol cover falls below 10 daysImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Kenya
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Kenya's government orders fuel rationing, or official figures put petrol stocks below 10 days of use.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Transport and foodRationing or a short cover would raise fares and food costs; shilling pressure and inflation were flagged in April 2026 [1].
- NeighboursFuel for Uganda and Rwanda moves through Mombasa (Strature's view; effect not sourced).
- PoliticsFuel prices feed protest.
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Kenya, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, India
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food
- Goods
- Diesel
- Straits
- Strait of Hormuz
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Supply holds
Non-Gulf cargoes and reserves keep cover above 10 days.
- S2
Second Gulf shock
A new Hormuz closure strands cargoes.
- S3
Payment squeeze
The 180-day credit under the deal ends or reserves fall, and cargoes slow.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | EPRA's monthly price review stays below the May 2026 record |
| S2 | Gulf loadings for Kenya halted |
| S3 | CBK reserve cover under four months |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 14 Nov 2026 EPRA monthly pump price review (the cycle runs from the 15th) [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window; no date set for a new stock figure [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Kenya moved a quarter of its government fuel supply to India and Europe within a year [5], a hedge that could last (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Was the Strait of Hormuz closed, or repriced cargo by cargo?
- Strait of Hormuz
- Kenya
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Driven by: A second Hormuz closure is the main route to a short cover.
- Protests in Kenya kill 20 or more people inside seven days Shares a channel: Fuel prices drive protest.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Kenya has 16 days of petrol, 19 days of diesel, 49 days of kerosene in stock - CS Mbadi. Citizen Digital · 2 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Diesel hits KES 242.92 as EPRA pushes pump prices to historic highs. Tech-ish · 14 May 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Kenya's foreign exchange reserves hold at 6-month import cover (CBK Weekly Bulletin). People Daily · 25 Sep 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Ranked: Which Countries Depend Most on Middle East Oil? (IEA World Energy Statistics data). Visual Capitalist · 2024 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- India, Europe hubs supply 25pc of Kenya's G-to-G fuel. Business Daily (Kenya) · 29 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks