Israeli chip supply to Ireland stops for a month
The test Before 25 Oct 2027, Israeli supply of integrated circuits to Ireland stops for a month: Eurostat Comext shows Ireland's imports of HS 8542 from Israel below €27m in a calendar month (a tenth of the 2025 monthly average of €267m), or the operator of a chip fab in Israel reports a halt of 30 days or more there. The score reads a trade-flow event. It is not a view on any company or its shares, and not a basis for trading or investment.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Israel and the US attacked Iran on 28 Feb 2026; Iranian missiles hit Israeli sites through early April; an exchange of strikes on 7-8 Jun; US-Iran agreement to end the war announced 14 Jun 2026 [8]
- US general election (midterms) on 3 Nov 2026 [11]
- New York Times, relayed by France 24: plans for new US-Israeli strikes on Iran after the US midterms; Trump has repeatedly cancelled plans to return to major combat [9]
- Ireland imported €4.32bn of HS 8542 in 2025, €3.21bn from Israel (74.3%); Israel's share 77.6% in 2023 and 79.4% in 2024; imports from Israel €3.60bn in 2024 [1]
- Monthly imports from Israel €207m-€338m in 2025; €191m Feb 2026, €265m Mar, €244m Apr, €337m-€363m May-Aug (Jun €338m); Jan-Aug 2026 €2.33bn [2]
- Ireland's HS 8542 imports from all sources €3.33bn in Jan-Aug 2026; Israel 69.9% [3]
- Ireland exported €7.64bn of HS 8542 in 2025 [4]
Why it matters
Israel supplies most of the integrated circuits Ireland imports: 74.3% by value in 2025, and 69.9% in January-August 2026. Israel and Ireland host fabs of the same US chipmaker, on different process nodes. Israeli shipments held through the Iranian missile campaign of March-April 2026; this risk is that a renewed war or a hit on a plant stops them for a full month.
Why Likelihood 3 Brakes: shipments held through the March-April 2026 missile campaign (lowest month €191m) and the 7-8 Jun exchange; President Trump has repeatedly cancelled plans to return to major combat, as reported; Intel 7 also made in Arizona; the stop must last a full month.
Why Impact 3 Key measure: Comext monthly imports from Israel. Threshold case: one month without Israeli supply.
The other facts on file (3)
- Intel key 2025 fabs: Ireland (Intel 4, Intel 3), Israel (Intel 7), Arizona (Intel 7, ramping 18A); business interruption from war not insured; Israeli property self-insured [5] (23 Jan 2026)
- Intel took back full ownership of its Irish fab venture on 8 Apr 2026, buying out Apollo's 49% stake [6] (24 Jul 2026)
- Intel to invest €5bn in Leixlip, mostly by 2027; Intel 3 run only in Ireland; just under 5,000 staff in Ireland [7] (13 Jul 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Before 25 Oct 2027, Israeli supply of integrated circuits to Ireland stops for a month: Eurostat Comext shows Ireland's imports of HS 8542 from Israel below €27m in a calendar month (a tenth of the 2025 monthly average of €267m), or the operator of a chip fab in Israel reports a halt of 30 days or more there. The score reads a trade-flow event. It is not a view on any company or its shares, and not a basis for trading or investment.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss found or sourced.
- Irish outputIreland exported €7.64bn of integrated circuits in 2025 [4].
More
The data do not show which firms ship or receive the Israeli chips.
- Intel's filingsIntel's 10-K lists Arizona as also running Intel 7 [5], and says business interruption from war is not insured and its Israeli property is self-insured.
- EU chip supplyA month's stop removes about €267m of EU imports at the 2025 rate (Strature calculation: €3.21bn a year divided by 12 [1]).
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Ireland, Israel, United States
- Sectors
- Technology
- Goods
- Semiconductors
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Steady flow
No new war, or a war like March-April 2026 that shipments ride through.
- S2
A dented month
New strikes bring a new barrage; one month falls well below trend but not to the threshold.
- S3
A plant stops
A hit on or near a chip fab in Israel, or a long closure of Israeli air and sea links, halts output for a month.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Comext monthly imports from Israel above €190m, the 2026 low |
| S2 | A US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026 (F-0074). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
| S3 | A fab operator's statement or filing on its Israeli operations |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it A US or Israeli strike on Iran by 20 Nov 2026 (F-0074). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Next Comext monthly update (September data) [2] Tentative · Outside event
- 3 Nov 2026 US midterm elections; the New York Times, citing unnamed officials (via France 24, 22 Oct), reported strike plans for after the vote [11] Declared · Outside event
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [10] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Ireland's own leading-edge output grows: Intel 3 runs only at Leixlip, with €5bn of new spending [7].
Connected in Strature
- Semiconductors
- Ireland
- Israel
- United States
- European Union
- An Iran-linked attack stops Israeli chip fabs for a week Driven by: A week-long halt of Israeli chip output is the first step to a month-long stop here.
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Shares a channel: The same US-Israel-Iran war.
Sources
11 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- DS-045409, filtered to reporter Ireland, partners Israel and world, HS 8542, imports, value in euros, annual 2023-2025. Eurostat Comext · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- DS-045409, filtered to reporter Ireland, partner Israel, HS 8542, imports, value in euros, monthly Jan 2025-Aug 2026. Eurostat Comext · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- DS-045409, filtered to reporter Ireland, partner world, HS 8542, imports, value in euros, monthly Jan-Aug 2026. Eurostat Comext · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- DS-045409, filtered to reporter Ireland, partner world, HS 8542, exports, value in euros, annual 2025. Eurostat Comext · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Intel Corporation Form 10-K, fiscal 2025. Intel, SEC EDGAR · 23 Jan 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Intel Corporation Form 10-Q, quarter ended 27 Jun 2026. Intel, SEC EDGAR · 24 Jul 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Intel to invest €5bn in Leixlip campus on next-generation chips to power AI. The Irish Times · 13 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- 2026 in Israel. Wikipedia · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Are fresh US-Israeli strikes on Iran in the pipeline? (press review). France 24 · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Forecast register (F-0074). Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Electioneering communications periods: general election (2026). Federal Election Commission · 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks