São Tomé and Príncipe's IMF fourth review is not completed by 30 Jun 2027
The test By 30 Jun 2027, the IMF Executive Board has not completed the fourth review of São Tomé and Príncipe's Extended Credit Facility arrangement approved on 19 Dec 2024.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
São Tomé and Príncipe's IMF Extended Credit Facility, approved on 19 Dec 2024, was extended by twelve months and enlarged in December 2025 after an electricity shock. IMF staff reached agreement on the third review in June 2026, and growth is projected at only 0.4% for 2026. In the IMF's words, a protracted energy crisis and the oil shock put the programme's progress at risk.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: energy crisis and oil shock named as risks; re-phasing in December 2025. Brakes: three reviews passed or agreed; most targets met. 3.
The other facts on file (4)
- Second review 19 Dec 2025: twelve-month extension; access 155% of quota; about US$13.7m disbursed; electricity shock [2] (19 Dec 2025)
- Mission 26 Mar-8 Apr 2026: most third-review targets met; energy crisis and oil shock put progress at risk [1] (9 Apr 2026)
- Staff-level agreement on the third review; US$6.1m on Board approval; growth 1% in 2025 and 0.4% in 2026 [3] (24 Jun 2026)
- End-2026 inflation projected at 12.2%; public debt 47.7% of GDP in 2026 [2] (19 Dec 2025)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
By 30 Jun 2027, the IMF Executive Board has not completed the fourth review of São Tomé and Príncipe's Extended Credit Facility arrangement approved on 19 Dec 2024.
Not under waySectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 1
- São Tomé and Príncipe primary
Who is exposed
No figure on file: São Tomé and Príncipe.
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
On time
The fourth review passes in early 2027.
- S2
Delayed
Power-sector arrears or a fiscal slip push the review past June 2027.
- S3
Reset
The programme is re-phased again after new shocks.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | a staff-level agreement on the fourth review by March 2027 |
| S2 | a staff mission ending without agreement |
| S3 | a request to re-phase or augment the arrangement |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
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Sources
3 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- São Tomé and Príncipe: IMF completes mission for the third review of the ECF arrangement. International Monetary Fund · 9 Apr 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe: IMF completes second review under the ECF arrangement and approves extension and augmentation. International Monetary Fund · 19 Dec 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- IMF sees São Tomé and Príncipe's economy regaining momentum over the mid-term. Ecofin Agency · 24 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks