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World risk · Energy and resources

The Papua LNG project misses a final investment decision by 31 Mar 2027

The test No final investment decision on the Papua LNG project (Papua New Guinea) is announced by 31 Mar 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. FID planned for the fourth quarter of 2026; revised project agreement with the PNG State signed in Q3; Tier 1 benefit-sharing agreement with landholders signed early October; operatorship moved to ExxonMobil [1]
  2. 5.6 Mt/yr; stakes after deals: ExxonMobil 34.1%, Santos 21%, TotalEnergies 20%, Kumul and MRDC 22.5%, ENEOS Xplora 2.4% [3]
  3. Capex about US$14bn after about US$4bn savings since 2024; EPC award recommendations await partner approval; 2019 Gas Agreement amended; 2.4 Mt/yr marketing JV with PNG state entities [2]

Why it matters

Papua LNG, a 5.6 Mt a year project in Papua New Guinea, was restructured in September 2026: a new operator, capital cost cut to about US$14bn. The partners plan the final investment decision for the fourth quarter of 2026, with the State and landholder agreements now signed. The decision has slipped before, from end-2024 to end-2025.

Why Likelihood 4 Push: a record of slips. Brakes: agreements signed; cost cut; EPC ready.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case no FID by 31 Mar 2027.

The other facts on file (2)
  • FID moved from end-2024 to end-2025 [4] (22 Aug 2024)
  • PNG exported 8.7 Mt of LNG in 2025, including 1.8 Mt of Taiwan's 23.5 Mt of imports [5] (2025)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

The Papua LNG project misses a final investment decision by 31 Mar 2027. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. The Papua LNG project misses a final investment decision by 31 Mar 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Papua New Guinea
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · PAPUA NEW GUINEA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

No final investment decision on the Papua LNG project (Papua New Guinea) is announced by 31 Mar 2027.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. PNG's financesThe State holds a share; a slip delays revenue and jobs (Strature's view).
  3. Asian LNG supplyNew volume for buyers such as Taiwan would come later.
  4. ContractorsEPC awards wait on FID.

Goods 1

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 2

  • Papua New Guinea primary
  • Taiwan

Who is exposed

Countries
Papua New Guinea, Taiwan
Sectors
Energy and pipelines
Goods
LNG
Companies
ExxonMobil, Santos, TotalEnergies, Kumul Petroleum Holdings, MRDC, ENEOS Xplora

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    FID in Q4 2026

    The partners approve as planned.

  2. S2

    Early-2027 FID

    A short slip, inside March.

  3. S3

    Another slip

    Finance, cost or approvals push past March 2027.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1EPC contracts awarded
S2A revised date in a partner's annual results
S3No FID in fourth-quarter reports

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 FID planned for the fourth quarter of 2026 [1] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Jan 2027 Partners' fourth-quarter reports (late January) [1] Tentative · Outside event
  3. 31 Mar 2027 Date on which this event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · PAPUA NEW GUINEA · strature.net

The other side

With the State and landholder agreements signed [1] and the cost cut [2], an FID would bring new LNG to Asian buyers short of Gulf supply and capital to PNG.

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. 2026 Third Quarter Report. Santos · 22 Oct 2026 · Company · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. Papua LNG clears key milestones as TotalEnergies transfers operatorship to ExxonMobil, nears FID. Pipeline & Gas Journal · 7 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. 5.6 Mt/year Papua LNG advances towards FID, ExxonMobil takes operatorship. Enerdata · 9 Sep 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Santos, partners postpone Papua LNG FID to late 2025. Natural Gas World · 22 Aug 2024 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. GIIGNL Annual Report 2026. GIIGNL · 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks