The Greater Sunrise gas contracts are still unsigned on 30 Jun 2027
The test By 30 Jun 2027, not all three instruments for Greater Sunrise (the Petroleum Mining Code, the production sharing contract and the fiscal regime) are signed.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Ramos-Horta (about 18 Oct 2026): agreements could be signed within months, first early 2027; Woodside selling 33.44% to Timor GAP; Osaka Gas selling 10%; January 2026 New Partnership for a New Era; analysts judge Chinese finance unlikely [1]
- Woodside to sell 33.44% for up to US$200m (US$13.71m at completion, US$11.29m after FID, US$175m after first LNG); completion expected 1H 2027; August 2026 alignment on key principles for a new PSC and fiscal framework [4]
Why it matters
Timor-Leste and Australia finalised the Petroleum Mining Code for Greater Sunrise in spring 2026, but the production sharing contract and fiscal regime are still open. President Ramos-Horta said in October they could be signed within months. The state firm Timor GAP is now buying out its partners and must find the money itself.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: partners' exit leaves Timor GAP to find finance; analysts judge Chinese finance unlikely. Brakes: Mining Code finalised; the President's within-months aim. One source each side: an open contest.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case a slip of weeks to months.
The other facts on file (2)
- Petroleum Fund could run out by 2034 (government); balance US$18.6bn; petroleum revenue US$36m in 2025; Chinese state firms may join after the framework with Australia is final [2] (9 Jun 2026)
- Petroleum Mining Code finalised; PSC and fiscal regime talks at an advanced stage; rounds set for June 2026 [3] (17 Apr 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- The Greater Sunrise gas contracts are still unsigned on 30 Jun 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · East Timor
How it spreads
By 30 Jun 2027, not all three instruments for Greater Sunrise (the Petroleum Mining Code, the production sharing contract and the fiscal regime) are signed.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Timor-Leste's budgetEach delay pushes back the gas revenue the Petroleum Fund needs.
- InvestorsWithout a signed regime Timor GAP cannot bring in partners and finance.
- AustraliaA slip tests the January 2026 partnership [1].
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Signed on time
The PSC and fiscal regime are signed in early 2027.
- S2
Partial
One instrument is signed, one is not.
- S3
Stall
Financing and partner talks delay the texts.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A signing ceremony in Dili or Canberra |
| S2 | A first signing early in 2027 alone |
| S3 | No new talks round reported by March 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 First agreement expected early 2027 (Ramos-Horta) [1] Tentative · Outside event
- Jun 2027 Woodside sale completion expected in the first half of 2027 [4] Tentative · Outside event
- 30 Jun 2027 Date on which this event is judged [3] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
Full state ownership lets Timor-Leste choose a pipeline to its own coast, which under the 2018 treaty would raise its revenue share (Strature's view); a signed regime would open the door to new partners [2].
Connected in Strature
- LNG
- Australia
- The Papua LNG project misses a final investment decision by 31 Mar 2027 Shares a channel: Another regional LNG project waiting on a final step (Strature's view).
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: Future Asian LNG supply.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Greater Sunrise: the questions Woodside's exit leaves unanswered. Lowy Institute, The Interpreter · 28 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Interview with Minister for Petroleum and Mineral Resources Francisco Monteiro (Lusa). AMAN Alliance (Lusa) · 9 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Greater Sunrise negotiations advance with focus on finalizing production sharing contract and fiscal regime. Tatoli · 17 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Woodside agrees to sell Greater Sunrise stake to TIMOR GAP for up to $200M. Offshore Engineer (OEDigital) · 27 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks