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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict · Elections & unrest

Another mass crossing into Ceuta or Melilla

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, 1,000 or more people enter Ceuta or Melilla irregularly from Morocco within 24 hours, by the count of Spain's Interior Ministry, a Government Delegation or the Guardia Civil.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth3
Depth1
Duration2
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

On the night of 30-31 Jul 2026 up to 50,000 people entered Ceuta from Morocco, most of them across or round the Tarajal breakwater, by the Interior Ministry's count; it later put the total for late July at 72,000. Interior Minister Fernando Grande-Marlaska gave 75 deaths on 4 Aug. About 70,000 went back to Morocco within days, and on 1 Aug the Government Delegation said installation of a 500-metre barrier at the breakwater had begun. The legal driver remains: a Supreme Court ruling of July 2026 bars summary returns of people who arrive by sea.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the Supreme Court ruling on sea returns still applies; thousands waiting near Castillejos in July; summer peak and Throne Day inside the window.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case: 1,000 people in one day. A July-scale wave would score higher.

The other facts on file (11)
  • Guardia Civil: 605 sea entries and 493 Moroccan interceptions from 1,109 attempts, 29-30 Jul (pending confirmation); 1,500 entries in the second half of July [2] (30 Jul 2026)
  • Interior: up to 50,000 entries on the night of 30-31 Jul; 72,000 for late July [1] (4 Aug 2026)
  • Morocco (spokesman, 2 Aug): about 40,000 into Ceuta, 1,135 into Melilla [1] (2 Aug 2026)
  • Deaths: 75 per Interior Minister Grande-Marlaska (4 Aug), 88 per Ceuta's government (3 Aug), 11 per Morocco (2 Aug) [1] (4 Aug 2026)
  • Interior: 70,000 returned to Morocco by 4 Aug; officers in Ceuta from 696 to 1,042 [1] (4 Aug 2026)
  • Government Delegation: installation of a 500-metre pneumatic barrier at the Tarajal breakwater began on 1 Aug [1] (1 Aug 2026)
  • Supreme Court judgment 2965/2026 of 8 Jul annulled border rejections of arrivals by sea [2] (30 Jul 2026)
  • Italy suspended Schengen with Spain for non-EU travellers from 1 Aug for one month [1] (7 Aug 2026)
  • Spain answered with checks on travellers from Italy from 00:00 on 8 Aug 2026 (Order INT/846/2026 of 7 Aug, published in the BOE on 9 Aug) [8] (9 Aug 2026)
  • Finland, Denmark and the Czech Republic, with Italy, floated excluding Spain from Schengen [1] (7 Aug 2026)
  • Ceuta's presidency put the minors' centre at 1,600% of capacity (as reported by the Guardia Civil) [2] (30 Jul 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Another mass crossing into Ceuta or Melilla: Low impact · possible1 · Low impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINGERMANYITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Another mass crossing into Ceuta or Melilla: Low impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, 1,000 or more people enter Ceuta or Melilla irregularly from Morocco within 24 hours, by the count of Spain's Interior Ministry, a Government Delegation or the Guardia Civil.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced.
  2. SchengenA new crossing could bring back checks on Spain like Italy's of 1 Aug 2026 [1] (Strature's view on freight).
  3. Spain-Morocco tiesReturn cooperation rests on Rabat; a crossing seen as tolerated would strain trade and gas links (Strature's view).
  4. Spanish politicsMigration is a theme of the campaign for the 29 Nov election [6]; Vox campaigns on remigration, Que! reported on 12 Oct [7].
    More

    The next government will decide the border law (Strature's view).

Who is exposed

Countries
Spain, Morocco, Italy, France

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Barrier holds

    The breakwater barrier and Moroccan patrols keep daily entries in the hundreds.

  2. S2

    New wave

    A summer or festival-season surge repeats July's pattern.

  3. S3

    Law changes

    The next government amends the Aliens Law to restore sea returns, removing the July ruling's effect.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No Interior figure above 1,000 in a day by 30 Apr 2027
S2A Guardia Civil count of 500 or more in 24 hours
S3A bill or decree on border rejections at sea

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 29 Nov 2026 General election; border policy on the ballot [6] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. Jul 2027 Summer swimming season, when the 2026 wave came (July-August) [2] Tentative · Window
  3. 30 Jul 2027 Moroccan Throne Day, the date of the 2026 crossing (yearly) [2] Tentative · Window

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SPAIN · strature.net

The other side

The July returns showed Spain and Morocco can act together at speed: about 70,000 returned within days [1]. A lasting fix at the breakwaters and a clear law could end the swimming route that the ruling opened.

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. El cruce de miles de personas a Ceuta desde Marruecos en julio de 2026: preguntas y respuestas. Maldita.es · 7 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Informe: Situacion migratoria en Ceuta (Guardia Civil, 30 Jul 2026), as published by La Region. La Region · 9 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. Italy suspends Schengen with Spain over Ceuta migrant crisis. Euronews · 31 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. Real Decreto 806/2026, de 5 de octubre (BOE summary). INAP, La Administracion al Dia · 6 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Abascal arranca la precampana de Vox: vivienda, pensiones y 'remigracion' para el 29-N. Que! · 12 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Orden INT/846/2026, de 7 de agosto (BOE-A-2026-17375). Boletin Oficial del Estado · 9 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks