Norway's parliament adopts new ethics rules for the oil fund
The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Storting adopts a new ethical framework for the Government Pension Fund Global that replaces the interim guidelines of 7 Nov 2025.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ 15 Oct 2026: NOU 2026: 11 delivered; consultation deadline 15 Jan 2027 set.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Stoltenberg: conclusions only once the process is complete. [5]
- NOU 2026: 11 delivered 15 Oct 2026; Norges Bank to choose between ownership and exclusion; Council stops recommending tools. [1]
- Storting asked for the review in Nov 2025; guidelines last amended 2021. [2]
- 14 firms excluded under the nuclear criterion; exception proposed for NPT nuclear-weapon states that are NATO allies of Norway; consultation to 15 January; government to report to parliament next spring. [3]
- Conclusions to go to parliament in the annual fund report; ICAN opposes. [4]
- Fund value NOK 22,014bn on 30 Sep 2026. [9]
Why it matters
The Storting froze the oil fund's ethics advice in November 2025, after the Caterpillar sale raised the prospect of forced sales of big tech stakes. On 15 Oct 2026 the Gjedrem committee proposed new rules that would let Norges Bank choose between engagement and exclusion and let allied nuclear-weapon makers back in. Comments close on 15 Jan 2027 and the government plans to take its view to parliament in spring 2027. The fund was worth NOK 22,014bn on 30 Sep 2026.
Why Likelihood 5 Brakes: the government waits for the process, a minority government, opposition from left partners and civil society, and adoption could slip to a later regulation.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case, a framework adopted: one national fund in nearly 70 countries; no sized money at stake (estimate, no cited proxy); a lasting rule change; a policy partners route around at a cost.
The other facts on file (4)
- Fund sold Caterpillar on the Council on Ethics' advice, which cited use of its bulldozers in the Palestinian territories; Council planned to examine Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet; Storting passed an urgent proposal pausing the Council's work. [6] (5 Nov 2025)
- Up to US$230bn of tech holdings feared sold before the pause. [7] (11 Nov 2025)
- Interim guidelines of 7 Nov 2025: criteria kept, Council shares information but no longer advises; apply until a new framework is adopted. [8] (7 Nov 2025)
- Storting debated the 2026 fund report (Meld. St. 7 (2025-2026), Innst. 418 S) on 4 Jun 2026. [13] (4 Jun 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Norway's parliament adopts new ethics rules for the oil fundImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 5 of 10, Elevated. · Norway
How it spreads
Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Storting adopts a new ethical framework for the Government Pension Fund Global that replaces the interim guidelines of 7 Nov 2025.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian channel sourced.
- Defence firmsThe fund could hold allied nuclear-weapon makers again; whether it would buy is not known.
More
No view on any company or security.
- Conduct casesNew rules close the open question of Caterpillar-type cases (Strature view).
- Engagement over exclusionFewer public exclusions, more private engagement by Norges Bank.
- Domestic politicsThe centre-left government needs left parties for its budget; they opposed the pause.
Sectors 2
- Banks and insurers
- Technology
Countries 6
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Norway, United States, United Kingdom, France, Israel, Canada
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers, Technology
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
June adoption
The government follows the committee in its spring report; the Storting adopts a new framework in June 2027.
- S2
Split decision
Parliament adopts the engagement model but keeps the nuclear ban as it stands.
- S3
Slip into 2028
The government asks for more time; the interim rules stay.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The spring fund report names a new framework text |
| S2 | An amendment on the nuclear criterion passes in committee |
| S3 | The spring 2027 fund report defers the ethics chapter |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 15 Jan 2027 Consultation on NOU 2026: 11 closes [3] Declared · Outside event
- Apr 2027 Government's annual report on the fund, with its conclusions (next spring; month not announced) [3] Tentative · Outside event
- Jun 2027 Storting handles the fund report (Strature reading of the usual cycle; 2026 report debated 4 Jun 2026) [13] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
Clear rules end a year of pause and remove the risk of a sudden forced sale of large holdings. Re-entry to allied defence firms lines the fund up with Norway's defence build-up, a point Stoltenberg called the paradox.
Connected in Strature
- Canada’s capital projects
- Norway
- United States
- United Kingdom
- France
- Israel
- Canada
- Norway's oil fund falls below NOK 20,000bn at a quarter end Shares a channel: Same fund; rules that avoid forced sales of the largest holdings bear on its value.
- Norway's Labour minority government falls Shares a channel: The left parties that opposed the pause are the government's budget partners.
Sources
10 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Vil gi Norges Bank større ansvar for Oljefondets etiske valg. NHH · 15 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- BI-professorer med på å forme Oljefondets nye retningslinjer. BI Norwegian Business School · 15 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Norway may open $2 trillion wealth fund to nuclear weapons makers. Euronews · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Norwegian review recommends opening wealth fund to nuclear weapons producers. ICAN · 15 Oct 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Norway's SWF could start investing in nuclear weapons for first time. IPE · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Norway suspends $2.1tn oil fund's ethics rules to avoid selling Big Tech stakes. The Irish Times (Financial Times) · 5 Nov 2025 · News · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Norway averted $230 billion tech sale with oil fund ethics pause. Bloomberg Government · 11 Nov 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Interim ethical guidelines for the Government Pension Fund Global. Ministry of Finance · 7 Nov 2025 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Negative return in the third quarter. Norges Bank Investment Management · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Innstilling fra finanskomiteen om Statens pensjonsfond 2026 (Innst. 418 S (2025-2026)), Storting meeting 4 Jun 2026, item 13. Stortinget · 4 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks