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World risk · Finance and markets · Global debt & markets

Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Norges Bank sets its policy rate at 4.75% or higher at a scheduled or extra policy meeting.

Not under way · Confidence: high · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 24 Sep 2026: Norges Bank raised the rate and lifted its 2027 rate path (MPR 3/2026).

Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Impact 3 to 4.
  2. Decisions: 14 Dec 2023 4.50% (+0.25); 19 Jun 2025 4.25%; 18 Sep 2025 4.00%; 7 May 2026 4.25%; 24 Sep 2026 4.50% [2]
  3. 2026-2027 decision dates: 5 Nov, 17 Dec 2026; 21 Jan, 18 Mar, 5 May, 17 Jun, 19 Aug, 23 Sep, 4 Nov, 16 Dec 2027 [5]
  4. EUR/NOK 10.7990 on 23 Sep 2026 and 10.4545 on 26 Oct 2026 [7]
  5. CPI 3.4%, CPI-ATE 3.0% in the year to Sep 2026 [4]
  6. Governor: further hikes possible if warranted; wage growth above forecasts; expectations above pre-pandemic levels; the spring 2026 Hormuz closure drove up energy and commodity prices; higher foreign rates weaken the krone's disinflationary effect [6]
Show 3 earlier changes
  1. 2027 budget: NOK 608.4bn oil money, 2.7% of the fund; CPI 2.7% in 2027; unemployment 2.1% [8]
  2. Rate raised from 4.25% to 4.50% (decided 23 Sep, published 24 Sep 2026); committee prepared to raise further if needed; capacity slightly below normal; CPI-ATE lower than projected [1]
  3. MPR 3/2026 rate path averages: 4.2% (2026), 4.6% (2027, +0.2 vs MPR 2/26), 4.2% (2028), 3.7% (2029); CPI 2.6% and CPI-ATE 2.7% in 2027 [3]

Why it matters

Norges Bank raised its policy rate twice in 2026, to 4.25% in May and 4.50% in September, after two cuts in 2025. It says it is prepared to raise again if the inflation outlook requires it, and its September forecast puts the average rate for 2027 at 4.6%. CPI inflation was 3.4% in September, above the 2% target for several years. This is a risk scenario, not a view on any security.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: oil, gas and wages named as upside risks. Brakes: CPI-ATE below projection; capacity slightly below normal; path falls from end-2027.

Why Impact 4 Key price: policy rate. Threshold case: one 0.25-point hike, 4.50% to 4.75%.

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more: Elevated impact · possible1 · Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESUNITED KINGDOMJAPANNORWAYFRANCEITALYPACIFIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. Norges Bank raises its policy rate to 4.75% or more: Elevated impact · possibleBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitUNITED STATESJAPANFRANCEITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, Norges Bank sets its policy rate at 4.75% or higher at a scheduled or extra policy meeting.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. Households and housingA hike passes quickly to floating-rate mortgages (Strature's view; share not sourced).
  2. The kroneThe krone usually strengthens after an unexpected hike.
  3. The budgetHigher rates tighten the overall stance (Strature's view).

Goods 2

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Norway
Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Hold, then cut

    Inflation slows and the rate stays at 4.50% until cuts begin late in 2027.

  2. S2

    Long hold

    Inflation stalls near 3%; the bank holds through 2027 without a hike.

  3. S3

    Another hike

    Oil and gas stay high or wages surprise, and the bank goes to 4.75%.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1December 2026 report lowers its 2027 average below 4.5%
S2CPI-ATE between 2.7% and 3.0% through spring 2027
S3A hike on 17 Dec 2026 or 18 Mar 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it Strature F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 5 Nov 2026 Norges Bank policy rate decision [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 10 Nov 2026 Statistics Norway CPI for October [4] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 20 Nov 2026 Strature F-0074 resolves. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [10] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  4. 17 Dec 2026 Decision and Monetary Policy Report 4/2026 [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  5. 21 Jan 2027 Policy rate decision [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  6. 18 Mar 2027 Decision and Monetary Policy Report [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  7. 5 May 2027 Policy rate decision [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  8. 17 Jun 2027 Decision and Monetary Policy Report [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  9. 19 Aug 2027 Policy rate decision [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  10. 23 Sep 2027 Decision and Monetary Policy Report [5] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · NORWAY · strature.net

The other side

Savers and Norway's banks would earn more on deposits, and a firmer krone would cut the kroner cost of imports (Strature's view). A hike that brings inflation down faster would open room for cuts sooner after the window; the bank sees the rate falling to about 3.7% in 2029 [3].

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Policy rate raised to 4.50%. Norges Bank · 24 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. Policy rate decisions since 1986. Norges Bank · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Monetary Policy Report 3/2026. Norges Bank · 24 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. Consumer price index, September 2026. Statistics Norway · 9 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Calendar: policy rate decisions. Norges Bank · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. The Governor's autumn lecture: Why is the last mile of disinflation taking so long?. Norges Bank · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Exchange rates, EUR/NOK daily. Norges Bank data API · 26 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Vil bruke 608,4 mrd. oljekroner neste år. Teknisk Ukeblad · 7 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. Strature forecast register, F-0074 (S-001). Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks