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World risk · Energy and resources

A court or regulator halts oil drilling off the Amazon mouth

The test A court order, Ibama or the ANP suspends an operating licence, or stops exploratory drilling or testing, for any well in the Foz do Amazonas basin, for any length of time, between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated rising this month

Likelihood ↑ 28 Sep 2026: MPF appeal to the TRF1 with an urgent request to suspend the licence

Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth2
Depth1
Duration3
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Likelihood 3 to 4.
  2. Lula was re-elected on 25 Oct 2026 on the TSE's count: with 100% of sections totalled, 51.79% of valid votes to 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro [13]
  3. Agencia Brasil reported Lula re-elected on the evening of 25 Oct 2026 [11]
  4. Amapa federal court dismissed the MPF's civil action on 23 Sep 2026 and fined the MPF for bad-faith litigation; two other actions with the same content pending [12]
  5. MPF appealed to the TRF1 on 28 Sep 2026 for an urgent suspension of Operating Licence No. 1,684/2025 and of all drilling or testing in FZA-M-59, with a R$1 million daily fine [2] [4]
  6. By 4 Sep 2026 (announced by the operator that day) Ibama rectified Operating Licence No. 1684 to add three contingent wells: Manga, Crotalus, Morpho Extensao [6]

Why it matters

Brazil's first well in the Foz do Amazonas basin found hydrocarbons in August 2026, and Ibama has since let the operator drill three more wells in the same block. Federal prosecutors have asked an appeal court to suspend the licence and stop all drilling. A regulator already halted the rig for about a month after a fluid leak in January 2026.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: four wells licensed to 2029; two TRF1 appeals and two other pending actions; the January leak. Brakes: the Amapá court dismissed the main action on 23 Sep and fined the MPF; Ibama widened the licence by 4 Sep; ministers and Senate leaders back drilling.

Why Impact 3 Threshold case a halt of some weeks, like January's; no key price moves.

The other facts on file (10)
  • Ibama issued the operating licence for block FZA-M-59 on 20 Oct 2025; eight groups sued in the federal court in Para on 22 Oct 2025 [10] (23 Oct 2025)
  • Block FZA-M-59 bought in the ANP's 11th round in 2013; one operator holds 100% [1] (14 Aug 2026)
  • 18.44 m3 of non-aqueous drilling fluid released at the Morpho well on 4 Jan 2026, at about 2,700 m [3] (19 Mar 2026)
  • The ANP suspended the rig's activities after the leak and allowed drilling to resume about a month later, on conditions; Ibama fined the operator R$2.5 million [5] (8 Feb 2026)
  • Hydrocarbons found at Morpho, about 175 km off Amapa, in 2,886 m of water [1] (14 Aug 2026)
  • E&P director: fluid analysis still strictly laboratory work; volume unknown; 32 exploratory wells planned on the Equatorial Margin need new Ibama licences [7] (18 Aug 2026)
  • MPF appealed to the TRF1 the transfer of the NGOs' Belem action to Amapa (Agravo 1008425-23.2026.4.01.0000) [3] (19 Mar 2026)
  • 2026-2030 plan: 15 wells on the Equatorial Margin and US$2.5bn of investment there [8] (17 Aug 2026)
  • Brazil oil output 4.475 mb/d in June 2026, up 19.1% year on year; pre-salt 82% of oil and gas output [9] (3 Aug 2026)
  • The rig NS-42, which the ANP suspended after the January leak, is a Foresea drillship [5] (8 Feb 2026)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

A court or regulator halts oil drilling off the Amazon mouth. Impact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. A court or regulator halts oil drilling off the Amazon mouthImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Brazil
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 25 Oct 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · BRAZIL · strature.net

How it spreads

If

A court order, Ibama or the ANP suspends an operating licence, or stops exploratory drilling or testing, for any well in the Foz do Amazonas basin, for any length of time, between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian exposure was found.
  2. EnergyA halt delays the appraisal of a frontier find, not current output (4.475 mb/d in June 2026, almost all from other basins) [9].
  3. RulesA court suspension would set a test for licences across the Equatorial Margin, where most planned wells still need Ibama's approval (Strature's view).
  4. BudgetFrontier output, if any, lies years away; a halt changes no revenue in the window (Strature's view).

Goods 1

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 1

Who is exposed

Countries
Brazil
Sectors
Energy and pipelines
Goods
Crude oil
Companies
Petrobras, Foresea

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Drilling runs on

    The TRF1 refuses the injunction and the extra wells go ahead.

  2. S2

    A stop for a fault

    Another leak or a safety finding brings a short ANP or Ibama halt, as in January 2026.

  3. S3

    A legal freeze

    The TRF1 suspends the licence until new studies or a consultation, and the wider Equatorial Margin programme waits.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A TRF1 ruling on the MPF's 28 Sep 2026 appeal
S2An ANP or Ibama notice on block FZA-M-59
S3An injunction in either TRF1 appeal

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 TRF1 ruling on the MPF's urgent request (date not set; the Oct-Dec 2026 window is Strature's estimate) [2] Tentative · Window
  2. 2029 End of the four-well schedule cited by the MPF (Manga, Crotalus and Morpho Extensao drilled after Morpho) [2] Tentative · Outside event
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · BRAZIL · strature.net

The other side

A clear court ruling either way would settle the frontier's legal footing, and a confirmed find would add a new oil province in the north. If drilling stops, the rig and capital move to basins already producing (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

13 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Petrobras descobre hidrocarbonetos em águas ultra-profundas na costa do Amapá. Agência Petrobras · 14 Aug 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. MPF volta a recorrer a tribunal para suspender perfuração de petróleo na Foz do Amazonas. Ministério Público Federal (PR-PA) · 29 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. MPF recorre para manter ação no Pará e volta a pedir anulação de licença para petróleo na Foz do Amazonas. Ministério Público Federal (PR-PA) · 19 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. MPF apresenta recurso sobre petróleo na Foz do Amazonas. Correio da Manhã · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Ibama multa Petrobras em R$ 2,5 milhões por vazamento na Foz do Amazonas (Estadão Conteúdo). eixos · 8 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. Petrobras: Ibama emitiu licença para perfurar mais 3 poços na bacia da Foz do Amazonas (Estadão Conteúdo). Diario de Pernambuco · 4 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Petrobras confirma óleo leve no poço Morpho, mas diretoria condiciona volume total a novas licenças do Ibama. Agência Cenário Energia · 18 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  8. Petrobras confirma descoberta de petróleo na Foz do Amazonas. Midiamax · 17 Aug 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  9. ANP divulga dados consolidados da produção de petróleo e gás em junho de 2026. Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis · 3 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. ONGs acionam Justiça contra perfuração na Foz do Amazonas. Metrópoles · 23 Oct 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. Lula é reeleito presidente do Brasil em virada histórica. Agência Brasil · 25 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  12. MPF apresenta novo recurso contra exploração na Foz do Amazonas. Diario de Pernambuco · 29 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Results file, 2nd round, President, Brazil (br-c0001-e006258-u.json; 25/10/2026 23:27:02; 100% of sections totalled). Tribunal Superior Eleitoral · 25 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 27 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks