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World risk · Finance and markets

Oman's 2027 budget plans a deficit above 2026's RO 530m

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Oman's state budget for 2027, as approved and published by the Ministry of Finance, plans a deficit above RO 530m.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration3
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. S&P kept BBB-, stable; 2026 growth raised to 3.5%; named risk of conflict-related spending reversing fiscal consolidation [5]
  2. H1 2026 revenue RO 6.602bn, deficit RO 17m, oil US$74; fuel support RO 162m against RO 35m budgeted [3]

Why it matters

Oman's 2026 budget planned a deficit of RO 530m, 14.5% below 2025's plan, on oil at US$60. The year has run better on higher oil, but fuel support already cost RO 162m in the first half against RO 35m budgeted. The finance ministry began drafting the 2027 budget in May 2026.

Why Likelihood 4 Drivers: fuel support at 4.6 times its budget in the first half; S&P's named risk of conflict-related spending. Brakes: a near-balanced first half; the 2026 plan cut the deficit; Fitch forecasts a small deficit.

The other facts on file (4)
  • 2026 budget: revenue about RO 11.447bn, spending about RO 11.977bn, deficit about RO 530m (1.3% of GDP), oil US$60 [1] (1 Jan 2026)
  • Principal of RO 1.762bn due in 2026; borrowing of RO 990m abroad and RO 902m at home; reserves drawdown about RO 400m [2] (3 Jan 2026)
  • Ministry gathering on Financial Publication No 1/2026 for the 2027 estimates [4] (19 May 2026)
  • Fitch expects a deficit of about 1% of GDP in 2026-27, on Brent at US$63 [6] (8 Dec 2025)

Where it sits

OMANUAEQATAR11. Oman's 2027 budget plans a deficit above 2026's RO 530m: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Oman's 2027 budgetplans a deficit above2026's RO 530mLow impact · possibleOMAN PLANS A WIDER DEFICIT0300 kmat 21°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
OMANUAE11. Oman's 2027 budget plans a deficit above 2026's RO 530m: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Oman plansa wider deficitOMAN PLANS A WIDER DEFICIT0300 kmat 21°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Oman's state budget for 2027, as approved and published by the Ministry of Finance, plans a deficit above RO 530m.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. DebtA larger planned deficit adds to borrowing on top of RO 1.762bn of principal due in 2026 [2].
  3. RatingsFitch credits "reforms aimed at widening the tax base" [6]; S&P could lower the rating if the fiscal position deteriorated with an escalation of the conflict [5].
  4. BusinessStrature's view: development spending under the 2026-2030 plan [4] is what contractors and banks would watch.

Sectors 2

  • Government bonds
  • Banks and insurers

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Oman.

Sectors
Government bonds, Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Wider plan

    Fuel support and plan spending push the planned deficit above RO 530m.

  2. S2

    Same path

    The plan keeps the deficit at or below RO 530m on a US$60 oil price.

  3. S3

    Surplus plan

    A higher oil assumption yields a balanced plan.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Spending above RO 12bn in the published budget
S2A published deficit near 1% of GDP
S3An oil assumption above US$65

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Jan 2027 Approval of the 2027 state budget (the 2026 budget was approved on 1 Jan 2026) [1] Tentative · Window
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · OMAN · strature.net

The other side

The 2026 plan cut the deficit by 14.5% from 2025's [1], the first half of 2026 was almost balanced [3], and Fitch expected a deficit of about 1% of GDP in 2026-27 on Brent at US$63 [6].

Connected in Strature

Sources

6 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Budget 2026 projects RO 530m deficit, revenues at RO 11.4bn. Oman Observer · 1 Jan 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Why Oman's 2026 borrowing plan exceeds the RO 530m budget deficit. Oman Observer · 3 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Fuel support bill hits RO 162m, 4.6 times annual budget. Oman Observer (Ministry of Finance data) · 15 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Finance Ministry to host gathering on drafting state budget for fiscal year 2027. Times of Oman · 19 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Oman's economy to grow 3.5% in 2026 on favourable trade logistics, S&P says. The National · 26 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. Fitch lifts Oman's credit rating to BBB- amid stronger finances. Arab News · 8 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks