Sabotage knocks out Syrian power plants again
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an attack or sabotage on a Syrian gas plant, pipeline or power station takes three or more power plants offline at once, or cuts power to a whole governorate for 48 hours, as the energy ministry, the Syrian Petroleum Company or two independent sources report.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Syria and the World Bank agreed a multi-donor recovery and reconstruction trust fund [5]
- A fire on the al-Shoula to Deir Az Zor gas pipeline halted gas from Jbessa to power stations (late Sep) [4]
- Sabotage damaged an oil pipeline near Tal Hamis; those responsible arrested, the company said [4]
- A sabotage attack hit the Jbessa gas pipeline and the Baniyas-Homs line leaked; gas rerouted to power stations [4]
- A gas pipeline blast at the Tishreen plant cut gas to three power plants; two hurt (state TV) [3]
Why it matters
Syria's gas network, which feeds its power stations, has been hit by a run of blasts and attacks since August 2026. On 30 Sep an explosion on a gas pipeline at the Tishreen plant took three power plants offline; no cause was given. Reconstruction money is starting to arrive, and a grid that keeps failing would slow it.
Why Likelihood 4 Brakes: arrests after Tal Hamis; gas rerouted after 15 Oct. 4.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: three plants offline or a governorate dark for 48 hours.
The other facts on file (1)
- Explosion at a gas export pipeline at the Jbessa (Al-Jabsah) plant; the Syrian Petroleum Company called it deliberate sabotage [2] (18 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Sabotage knocks out Syrian power plants againImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Syria
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, an attack or sabotage on a Syrian gas plant, pipeline or power station takes three or more power plants offline at once, or cuts power to a whole governorate for 48 hours, as the energy ministry, the Syrian Petroleum Company or two independent sources report.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- PowerOutages for homes and industry served by the lost plants (Strature's view).
- RecoveryRepeated attacks raise the cost and risk of reconstruction (Strature's view).
Sectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 1
- Syria primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Syria
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Patched network
Attacks stay small; gas is rerouted.
- S2
Rolling outages
More blasts take plants down for days.
- S3
Funded repair
Donor money hardens the grid.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A quarter with no reported pipeline attack |
| S2 | A new Syrian Petroleum Company sabotage statement |
| S3 | A first World Bank fund project for power |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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Connected in Strature
- Syria
- Jordan's main crossing into Syria stays shut to freight for 30 days Shares a channel: Militant activity in Syria drives both.
- The PKK disarmament process breaks down Shares a channel: The north-east, where Syria's gas fields lie, is that card's ground.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- 2026 in Syria. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Syrian Petroleum Company says explosion occurred at gas export pipeline in the northeast. The Times of Israel (Reuters) · 18 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Three Syrian power plants out of service after gas pipeline explosion, state news agency says. The Times of Israel (Reuters) · 30 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Two Syrian pipelines damaged amid spate of attacks on energy infrastructure. Al Jazeera · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Syria, World Bank agree to set up fund for recovery and reconstruction. The Times of Israel (Reuters) · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review; score unchanged · All risks