The PKK disarmament process breaks down
The test Between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the PKK leadership, Abdullah Öcalan, the Turkish President or Türkiye's National Security Council declares the disarmament process over, or an attack claimed by the PKK, or attributed to it by the Turkish government, kills five or more people in Türkiye.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Impact 3 to 4.
- Duran Kalkan said Ankara kept the process at the level of statements and no decision was made on Öcalan's status [4]
- Speaker Kurtulmuş said the law will not be implemented if the PKK does not lay down its weapons; evacuations and handovers proceeding as planned [3]
- Öcalan called on the PKK to disarm on 27 Feb 2025; the PKK declared a ceasefire on 1 Mar 2025 and announced its dissolution in May 2025 [5]
- PKK fighters left the Hebat, Yajk, Sabri and Sason camps in Iraq's Metina region from 8 Oct 2026 (Turkish security sources; Al-Monitor relays the same sources) [1]
- The process came to a near standstill earlier in 2026 because of the Iran war [1]
- The National Security Council reviewed the terror-free Türkiye and terror-free region goals [6]
Why it matters
The PKK said in May 2025 that it would dissolve; in August 2026 Türkiye's parliament passed a law offering conditional amnesty, and in October the PKK left four positions in northern Iraq. The process is moving, but slowly: Ankara says the law applies only once disarmament is verified, and a senior PKK figure says Ankara is stalling. A breakdown would reopen a conflict that has killed an estimated 40,000 people since 1984.
Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: Öcalan's status undecided, Ankara ties the law to verified disarmament, the Iran war stalled the process once, Syria's northeast. Brakes: the August law and monitoring board, the 8 Oct withdrawal, PKK statements that the process continues, the Council's terror-free goal.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case one attack killing five, or a declared end, with renewed Turkish strikes; key price USD/TRY (move not sourced).
The other facts on file (5)
- Parliament passed the framework law on 10 Aug 2026 with 467 of 592 lawmakers voting in favour; 12 articles; conditional amnesty; cases on hold 5-10 years; Öcalan and intentional killings excluded [2] (25 Aug 2026)
- After the Council confirms verification, eligible members have six months to apply for amnesty [2] (25 Aug 2026)
- The conflict has killed an estimated 40,000 people since 1984, about 7,000 in the last decade (Crisis Group via CFR) [5] (29 Jul 2026)
- Iraq's oil ministry said Kirkuk crude exports via Ceyhan resumed after a federal-KRG agreement, initial capacity 250,000 bpd (as relayed) [10] (19 Mar 2026)
- An attack on TUSAŞ near Ankara on 23 Oct 2024 killed 5 people besides the attackers; the interior minister said it was highly likely the PKK [11] (24 Oct 2024)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 25 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the PKK leadership, Abdullah Öcalan, the Turkish President or Türkiye's National Security Council declares the disarmament process over, or an attack claimed by the PKK, or attributed to it by the Turkish government, kills five or more people in Türkiye.
Not under wayChannels 5 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian channel or loss figure is sourced.
- SecurityA breakdown would end the ceasefire held since March 2025 [5]; about 7,000 died in the decade before it [5].
- PoliticsThe amnesty and the constitution principles sought before the 2028 elections [3] would stall (Strature's view).
- MarketsA deadly attack would add to the risk premium on Turkish assets (Strature's view; no move sourced).
- Iraq and SyriaTurkish operations in northern Iraq and against the SDF would likely resume or widen (Strature's view).
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Slow progress
Verification ends, the Council confirms it, and amnesty applications open.
- S2
Stalemate
The PKK holds its weapons until Öcalan's status changes; Ankara holds the law; no one declares the end.
- S3
Breakdown
A deadly attack or a declared end, followed by Turkish strikes in Iraq.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A National Security Council statement confirming disarmament |
| S2 | A new PKK statement setting conditions |
| S3 | The PKK or Ankara calling the process suspended |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 Next National Security Council meeting (every two months); possible verification finding [2] Tentative · Outside event
- 2028 Türkiye's general elections; constitution principles sought first [3] Tentative · Outside event
Connected in Strature
- Turkey
- Iraq
- Syria
- Iraqi crude through Ceyhan falls back below 0.4 mb/d for 30 days Shares a channel: Kirkuk-Ceyhan exports resumed in March 2026; that the pipeline crosses the region where the PKK operated is Strature's view.
- Türkiye's central bank has to raise its policy rate again within 12 months Shares a channel: A deadly attack would hit the lira.
Sources
8 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Kurdish PKK militants quit some camps in north Iraq, Turkish sources say (Reuters). Cyprus Mail · 12 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Turkey's Kurdish peace process moves to implementation: what to know and what's next. Al-Monitor · 25 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Turkey to withhold peace process law pending PKK disarmament: Speaker. Rudaw · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- PKK official presses Ankara for next steps in peace process. Kurdistan24 · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Conflict Between Turkey and Armed Kurdish Groups (Global Conflict Tracker). Council on Foreign Relations · 29 Jul 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Milli Güvenlik Kurulu 2026 Eylül ayı toplantısı basın bildirisi. National Security Council of Türkiye · 30 Sep 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
- Kirkuk oil exports resume via Ceyhan port (relays Iraq's Ministry of Oil). Iraq Business News · 19 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
- Attackers kill 5, injure 22 at Turkish aviation site (title from the page address). Daily Maverick · 24 Oct 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks