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World risk · Finance and markets

Namibia's diamond mining shrinks by 15% or more for two quarters running

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 the Namibia Statistics Agency's quarterly GDP release shows real value added in diamond mining down 15% or more year on year in two consecutive quarters (any quarters published in the window).

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Namibian diamond output held stable at about 0.5 million carats in the third quarter of 2026; a producer's rough price index was down 18% in the year to date [3]
  2. The Chamber of Mines projected Namibia's mining sector to shrink 6.2% in 2026, against the Bank of Namibia's 2.2%; August 2026 diamond output fell 12% from July [1]
  3. The Chamber of Mines gave mining's fall as 7.1% in the first quarter of 2026 and 3.1% in the second, and expects diamonds not to improve [7]

Why it matters

Namibia's diamond output is in its third year of decline: the Bank of Namibia sees falls of 11.7% in 2026 and 12.3% in 2027 after 19.4% in 2025. The Chamber of Mines cut its 2026 mining outlook in October. But mining's fall slowed to 3.1% in the second quarter, and third-quarter diamond output held steady while rough prices kept falling.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: the central bank's forecast of a further fall in 2027, short of the threshold; a weak rough market; the October outlook cut. Third-quarter output equals the fourth quarter of 2025, so the next year-on-year reading starts near flat.

The other facts on file (4)
  • The Bank of Namibia projects diamond output down 11.7% in 2026 after 19.4% in 2025, and down a further 12.3% in 2027 [2] (11 Aug 2026)
  • Namibian diamond production fell 21% to 500,000 carats in the fourth quarter of 2025 [4] (Jan 2026)
  • In the first quarter of 2026 Namibia's mining value added fell 12.2%, led by diamonds and gold [5] (26 Jun 2026)
  • Namibia's mining value added fell 28.8% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2025 [6] (26 Mar 2026)

Where it sits

SOUTH AFRICANAMIBIABOTSWANA11. Namibia's diamond mining shrinks by 15% or more for two quarters running: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Namibia diamond slumpElevated impact · unlikelyNAMIBIA DIAMOND SLUMP0500 kmat 23°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
SOUTH AFRICANAMIBIABOTSWANA11. Namibia's diamond mining shrinks by 15% or more for two quarters running: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Namibia diamondslumpNAMIBIA DIAMOND SLUMP0500 kmat 23°SMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027 the Namibia Statistics Agency's quarterly GDP release shows real value added in diamond mining down 15% or more year on year in two consecutive quarters (any quarters published in the window).

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. ExportsDiamonds are among Namibia's main exports; a deeper slump cuts export earnings [1][2].
  3. Public financesLower output and prices cut royalties and taxes from the sector [1].
  4. GrowthMining's fall already weighs on GDP; two more deep quarters would extend it [1][5].

Countries 3

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Namibia.

Sectors
Mining and metals
Goods
Diamonds

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Steady decline

    Falls stay near the central bank's path, below the threshold.

  2. S2

    Deep slump

    Weak prices force output cuts and two quarters fall 15% or more.

  3. S3

    Floor reached

    Output stabilises on an easier base after the 2025 fall.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The NSA's third-quarter 2026 GDP release, due about December 2026
S2A producer announcing a cut in Namibian carats in 2027
S3Quarterly output at or above 0.5 million carats through 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 NSA quarterly GDP, third quarter 2026 [5] Tentative · Outside event
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · NAMIBIA · strature.net

The other side

Third-quarter output equals that of a year-end quarter already down 21% [3][4]. The central bank's own 2027 forecast, a fall of 12.3%, sits below the threshold [2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Namibia's mining outlook worsens amid diamond slump, rising costs. The Star (Reuters) · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Diamond weakens growth gains. Windhoek Express · 11 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Namibia stays steady as De Beers' diamond output drops. The Namibian · 24 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Diamond production falls 21% in Q4. Windhoek Observer (Observer24) · 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Namibia's economy grows 2% in Q1 2026, below year-earlier pace. Ecofin Agency · 26 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Namibia Economy Contracts in Q4. Trading Economics · 26 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  7. Mining subdued in 2026, positive outlook for 2027. The Namibian · 5 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks