Namibia's first offshore oil field, Venus, still has no final investment decision by 1 Nov 2027
The test No final investment decision on the Venus field (Block 2913B, Orange Basin, offshore Namibia) is announced between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Decision waits on fiscal terms and gas strategy (reinjection vs gas ashore); local content policy approved August 2026; capex US$14-17bn; FPSO 150,000-160,000 b/d; first oil targeted 2030 [2]
- Operator's chief executive at the 28 Sep 2026 investor day: decision could come in October, a matter of weeks; cost about US$17bn; output 160,000 b/d [1]
Why it matters
The Venus field (Block 2913B, Orange Basin) would be Namibia's first oil output. Its final investment decision, aimed for the end of July 2026 and then called 'a matter of weeks' away in late September, had not been announced by 1 Nov 2026. On 22 Oct 2026 it was reported stalled on fiscal terms and gas strategy, with capex put at US$14-17bn.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: July target missed, late-September 'weeks' passed with no announcement found; open fiscal and gas dispute; analyst's slip forecast. Brakes: contractors selected and offers expiring; government supportive, per the operator in July. Held at 4.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case no decision by 1 Nov 2027.
The other facts on file (3)
- Chief executive, half-year results call (reported 27 Jul 2026): joint target to sanction by end of July; all contractors selected; government fundamentally supportive [3] (27 Jul 2026)
- Development director: decision must come before 2027; contractor offers have validity periods; Wood Mackenzie analysis suggested a slip to 2027 [4] (23 Aug 2026)
- Petroleum commissioner Maggy Shino expected the decision in 4Q26; partners TotalEnergies 45.25%, QatarEnergy 35.25%, Impact 9.5%, NAMCOR 10% [5] (13 May 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Namibia's first offshore oil field, Venus, still has no final investment decision by 1 Nov 2027Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Namibia
How it spreads
No final investment decision on the Venus field (Block 2913B, Orange Basin, offshore Namibia) is announced between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027.
Not under wayThree scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Terms settled
Fiscal and gas terms are agreed and the decision follows.
- S2
Drift into 2027
Talks run on and contractor offers are re-priced, but a decision comes before November 2027.
- S3
Long stall
The gas dispute stays open past the window.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A government statement on Venus fiscal terms |
| S2 | Contractor offers extended |
| S3 | No government statement on Venus fiscal terms by mid-2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Namibia
- IEA members agree a second emergency oil stock release Shares a channel: New Atlantic crude from 2030 would ease later supply (Strature's view).
- Angola's crude output averages under 1.0 mb/d for a full quarter Shares a channel: The region's crude supply.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- TotalEnergies hints at final oil decision in October. The Namibian · 30 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- TotalEnergies' $17 billion Venus project stalls as Namibia's fiscal terms remain unsettled. Businessfront · 22 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- TotalEnergies eyes July FID on Venus. Windhoek Observer · 27 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Venus decision must come before 2027 – TotalEnergies. The Namibian · 23 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- TotalEnergies, BW Energy to decide on Namibia projects in late 2026. Offshore Engineer · 13 May 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks