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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

Under way: the EU's ferro-alloy quotas still curb Iceland's exports in Nov 2027

The test On 3 Nov 2027, the EU's definitive safeguard on ferro-alloys still applies a country quota to imports of ferro-silicon from Iceland, with no exemption granted, as shown by the Official Journal of the EU or the Commission.

Under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
8High steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration7
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

Since 18 Nov 2025 the EU has applied a three-year safeguard on ferro-alloy imports, with country quotas for Norway and Iceland even though both sit in the European Economic Area. Iceland supplies about 4% of the EU's ferro-alloy imports. The question is whether Iceland is still under a quota a year from now, or wins an exemption at a review.

Why Likelihood 8 Push: a three-year measure in force to Nov 2028. Brakes: the review due by about Nov 2026 and quarterly consultations with Norway and Iceland are an exit channel, so not 9.

The other facts on file (5)
  • Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2351 sets country quotas for three years, in quarterly periods from 18 Nov 2025 to 17 Nov 2028 [1] (18 Nov 2025)
  • Iceland's ferro-silicon quota (order no. 09.8840) is 13,373.32 tonnes in most quarters of the first year and 13,386.70 tonnes a quarter from 18 Nov 2026 [1] (18 Nov 2025)
  • Above quota a variable duty applies only when the import price is below EUR 2,408 a tonne [1] (18 Nov 2025)
  • Article 7 requires a review no later than one year after entry into force [1] (18 Nov 2025)
  • Quarterly consultations with Norway and Iceland; Norway supplies 43% and Iceland 4% of EU ferro-alloy imports [2] (18 Nov 2025)

Where it sits

ICELAND11. Under way: the EU's ferro-alloy quotas still curb Iceland's exports in Nov 2027: Elevated impact · under way (placed at the country)1 EU quotas still curbIcelandElevated impact · under wayEU QUOTAS STILL CURB ICELAND0200 kmat 65°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
ICELAND11. Under way: the EU's ferro-alloy quotas still curb Iceland's exports in Nov 2027: Elevated impact · under way (placed at the country)1 EU quotas stillcurb IcelandEU QUOTAS STILL CURB ICELAND0200 kmat 65°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

On 3 Nov 2027, the EU's definitive safeguard on ferro-alloys still applies a country quota to imports of ferro-silicon from Iceland, with no exemption granted, as shown by the Official Journal of the EU or the Commission.

Under way now

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. ExportsIceland's ferro-silicon sales to the EU stay capped by quarter [1].
  3. PricesShipments above quota pay duty whenever prices fall below the threshold [1].
  4. EEA relationsA safeguard on EEA partners stays in force, a break with past EU practice (Strature's view).

Sectors 1

  • Mining and metals

Countries 2

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Iceland, Norway, European Union.

Sectors
Mining and metals
Goods
Ferro silicon

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Quota stays

    The review keeps Iceland's quota.

  2. S2

    Exemption

    The review drops Norway and Iceland.

  3. S3

    Tighter

    The measure is widened or quotas cut.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A review notice that leaves Iceland's quotas in place
S2An amending regulation excluding EEA countries
S3An amending regulation lowering quotas

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 Review due no later than one year after entry into force [1] Declared · Outside event
  2. 18 Nov 2026 Iceland's quarterly quota rises to 13,386.70 tonnes [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 3 Nov 2027 Date the event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  4. 17 Nov 2028 The safeguard ends [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · ICELAND · strature.net

The other side

Iceland's quota stays roughly flat over the three years, and out-of-quota duty applies only at low prices [1]. Quarterly consultations give Iceland a standing channel to the Commission [2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

2 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2351 imposing definitive safeguard measures on imports of certain ferro-alloys. European Commission, via LawPlayer · 2025-11 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. EU tightens up on ferroalloy imports, including from Norway and Iceland. Eunews · 18 Nov 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks