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World risk · Energy and resources

The Burgas refinery stops for two weeks or more for lack of a US licence

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, crude runs at the Burgas refinery stop for 14 days in a row or more because the US general licence for its sanctioned operator lapses or is not renewed.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration2
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. The licence lets certain operations continue at the Burgas refinery, the fuel station network and aviation and marine fuel suppliers (BTA) [2]
  2. The first authorisation for the Bulgarian entities came in November 2025, after Bulgaria appointed a special commercial administrator; extensions followed while buyers were sought (BTA) [2]
  3. OFAC General License No. 130B, dated 15 Oct 2026, authorises dealings with Lukoil Neftohim Burgas and three other Lukoil entities in Bulgaria through 12:01 a.m. EDT, 24 Apr 2027; it replaced GL 130A of 14 Apr 2026 [1]

Why it matters

The Burgas refinery on Bulgaria's Black Sea coast runs under a US general licence because its Russian-owned operator is under US sanctions. The licence in force lapses on 24 Apr 2027 and has been renewed at each step since November 2025. In Serbia, sanctions on a refinery's owner stopped production for nearly two months in 2025-26.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: the Serbian precedent; the open search for buyers. Brakes: the renewal record; the date is more than 30 days away.

The other facts on file (2)
  • Rumen Radev, who called for practical relations with Russia, won the election of 19 Apr 2026 [3] (20 Apr 2026)
  • Serbia's Pancevo refinery restarted after a halt of nearly two months under sanctions on its owner, the energy minister said [4] (18 Jan 2026)

Where it sits

TÜRKIYEUKRAINEROMANIASYRIAGREECEAUSTRIAHUNGARYMOLDOVAALBANIA11. The Burgas refinery stops for two weeks or more for lack of a US licence: Elevated impact · possible (Neftochim Burgas refinery)1 US licence lapsehalts BurgasUS LICENCE LAPSE HALTS BURGAS0500 kmat 42°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
TÜRKIYEUKRAINEROMANIASYRIAGREECEALBANIA11. The Burgas refinery stops for two weeks or more for lack of a US licence: Elevated impact · possible (Neftochim Burgas refinery)1 US licence lapsehalts BurgasUS LICENCE LAPSE HALTS BURGAS0500 kmat 42°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, crude runs at the Burgas refinery stop for 14 days in a row or more because the US general licence for its sanctioned operator lapses or is not renewed.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Fuel supplyBulgaria would import more petrol, diesel and jet fuel at a cost (Strature's view).
  3. Black Sea fuel marketBuyers in Romania and North Macedonia would lose a nearby supplier (Strature's view).
  4. Sanctions complianceBanks, insurers and traders dealing with the refinery would lose their US authorisation [1].

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 3

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Bulgaria, Romania, North Macedonia, Russia, United States.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
Goods
Crude oil, Diesel, Petrol, Jet fuel

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Renewed again

    OFAC issues a further licence before 24 Apr 2027.

  2. S2

    Sale

    A sale of the Bulgarian entities is licensed and runs continue under new owners.

  3. S3

    Lapse

    No renewal by the deadline and crude runs stop.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A GL 130C by April 2027
S2An OFAC licence naming a buyer
S3No new licence within 30 days of 24 Apr 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 24 Apr 2027 GL 130B lapses unless renewed [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · BULGARIA · strature.net

The other side

Each renewal so far has kept the refinery running [1][2]; a licensed sale could end the short renewals.

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. General License No. 130B: Authorizing Transactions Involving Certain Lukoil Entities in Bulgaria. US Treasury OFAC · 15 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. US Extends Authorization for Transactions with Lukoil's Foreign Subsidiaries Until April 24, 2027. BTA · 16 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Bulgaria's former President Radev wins election: All you need to know. Al Jazeera · 20 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Serbia resumes fuel production at Pancevo Refinery after two-month halt. N1 · 18 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks