Nigeria's crude and condensate output falls below 1.5 million barrels a day in a monthly NUPRC report
The test Any NUPRC monthly report for November 2026 to September 2027 shows Nigeria's total crude and condensate output below 1.5 million barrels a day, by 1 Nov 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- September 2026: 1.717 mb/d with condensate, 1.53 mb/d crude alone; more than 788,000 b/d shut-in output identified for restoration [2]
- August 2026: 1,677,777 b/d with condensate, 1,500,190 b/d crude alone; OPEC quota 1.5 mb/d met a fourth month; budget assumes 1.84 mb/d [1]
- Crude alone averaged 1.388 mb/d in Q1 2026 and 1.525 mb/d in Q2 (OPEC figures) [1]
Why it matters
Nigeria pumped 1.717 million barrels a day of crude and condensate in September 2026, by NUPRC's count, still below the 1.84 mb/d the 2026 budget assumes. Output has met the OPEC crude quota since May. A month under 1.5 mb/d would cut federal revenue in the election season and remove barrels that Canada, South Africa and Europe buy.
Why Likelihood 3 Push: the weak first quarter of 2026. Brakes: five months in a row at or above the crude quota; shut-in output being restored.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case one month just under 1.5 mb/d. Canada is exposed as a buyer.
The other facts on file (4)
- NUPRC: crude and condensate 1.438 mb/d in March 2024 and 1.447 mb/d in April 2024 [7] (13 May 2024)
- Nigeria supplied 10.9% of Canada's crude imports by volume in 2025, second after the US [3] (15 Jul 2026)
- Nigeria supplied 48% of South Africa's crude imports in 2024 [4] (11 Mar 2026)
- Netherlands, India, Spain, Canada and France were Nigeria's top five export markets in Q4 2023 [5] (1 Mar 2024)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Nigeria's crude and condensate output falls below 1.5 million barrels a day in a monthly NUPRC reportImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Nigeria
How it spreads
Any NUPRC monthly report for November 2026 to September 2027 shows Nigeria's total crude and condensate output below 1.5 million barrels a day, by 1 Nov 2027.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaAn exposure as a buyer; no Canadian loss sourced.
- Federal budgetRevenue falls further below the budget's oil assumption.
- BuyersCanada, South Africa and European and Indian buyers replace barrels from other suppliers.
Goods 1
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Banks and insurers
Countries 6
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Nigeria, Canada, South Africa, Netherlands, India, Spain
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Banks and insurers
- Goods
- Crude oil
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Steady
Output holds near 1.7 mb/d as shut-ins return.
- S2
Dip
Pipeline outages or a strike pull a month towards 1.5 mb/d.
- S3
Below the line
Theft, strikes and outages coincide, as in the weak first quarter of 2026.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | NUPRC's monthly report |
| S2 | A force majeure on an export grade |
| S3 | A monthly crude-only figure under 1.4 mb/d |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 NUPRC report for November 2026, the first month in scope [1] Tentative · Strature date
- 16 Jan 2027 Presidential vote (revenue pressure in the campaign) [6] Declared · Outside event
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The other side
Restoring even part of the 788,000 b/d of shut-in output would lift revenue towards the budget line [2].
Connected in Strature
- Crude oil
- Nigeria
- Canada
- South Africa
- Netherlands
- India
- Spain
- Nigeria's presidential vote slips from 16 Jan 2027 by seven days or more Shares a channel: Federal revenue and the naira in the election season.
- Free of OPEC, the UAE pumps above 4 mb/d for a quarter Shares a channel: OPEC+ supply and quotas.
- Niger's crude exports through Benin stop for 30 days Shares a channel: West African crude flows.
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Nigeria hits OPEC quota again but oil output still trails budget target. Nairametrics · 13 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- NUPRC says 127 million barrels of crude supplied to local refineries in nine months. Nairametrics · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Market Snapshot: Canadian crude oil imports dipped slightly in 2025, with most still coming from the US. Canada Energy Regulator · 15 Jul 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- No immediate risk of fuel shortages in SA, most oil imports from Nigeria. Daily Maverick · 11 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics (Q4 2023). National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) · 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- INEC revises 2027 election timetable: presidential poll now holds January 16. Nairametrics · 27 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Nigeria's oil production grows marginally by 4% to 1.28mbpd. The Tide · 13 May 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks