Nepal halts labour permits to Gulf states again
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027 Nepal's government suspends new labour permits for work in at least one Gulf Cooperation Council state for at least 14 days.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Nepal stopped issuing labour permits for the Gulf on 1 Mar 2026, a day after the US-Israeli war on Iran began, and reopened them on 20 Apr. About 1.73 million Nepalis work in the Middle East, and remittances reached Rs 2,363bn in FY2025/26. A renewed strike on Iran could bring a second halt.
Why Likelihood 4 Brakes: the quick reopening under workers' demand; the weight of remittances. Two drivers with brakes holding give 4.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case a 14-day halt.
The other facts on file (4)
- Permits for 12 countries incl. Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman suspended 1 Mar 2026, reopened 20 Apr on the Emergency Response Team's advice [1] (20 Apr 2026)
- Ghimire: reopening follows foreign ministry advice and high demand from workers; three-quarters of Nepalis abroad in the Middle East; remittances over a quarter of a US$42bn economy [2] (21 Apr 2026)
- Remittances Rs 2,363.13bn (about US$16.19bn) in FY2025/26; first-time approvals 505,957 to 406,519 [3] (26 Aug 2026)
- About 1.73 million Nepalis in the Middle East; UAE 478,144, Saudi Arabia 383,865; one Nepali killed in Abu Dhabi [4] (Mar 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Nepal halts labour permits to Gulf states againImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Nepal
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027 Nepal's government suspends new labour permits for work in at least one Gulf Cooperation Council state for at least 14 days.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- DeparturesA six-week repeat would cost about 35,000 first departures to the Middle East (Strature calculation) [5].
- RemittancesFewer new workers slow the flow that supports household income (Strature's view).
- Gulf employersGulf construction loses Nepali hires for the length of a halt.
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 5
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Nepal, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Calm holds
No new strikes; permits keep flowing.
- S2
Short halt
A new strike brings a pause of a few weeks, as in March.
- S3
Long halt
Attacks on Gulf cities keep permits shut for months.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
| S2 | An Emergency Response Team advisory |
| S3 | Nepali casualties in a Gulf state |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [6] Declared · Strature date
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
The April reopening came quickly, under pressure from workers; a halt also shows a state that acts to protect its citizens abroad (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Nepal
- United Arab Emirates
- Saudi Arabia
- Qatar
- Kuwait
- An Iranian strike halts a UAE port, plant or airport Driven by: An Iranian strike on the UAE, home to the largest group of Nepali workers, is the clearest trigger for a halt.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Labour permits reopened for 12 countries, including Gulf states. The Kathmandu Post · 20 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Nepal restarts Gulf work permits after Iran conflict halted labor migration (Reuters). The Jerusalem Post · 21 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 3.85% growth and Rs 2.36 trillion remittances: FY 2025/26 macroeconomic report. Nepal News · 27 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Remittances in Nepal: economy, migration, geopolitical vulnerability and the West Asia crisis. Nepal News · 15 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Strature calculation: first Middle East departures lost in a six-week halt (dossier NPL, NPL-gulf-war-hormuz-deep-22). Strature library · 6 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Forecast register, row F-0074. Strature · 2026 · Think tank · confidence high · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks