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World risk · Energy and resources · Elections & unrest

The Irish coalition loses a Dáil confidence vote

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Government loses a Dáil division on a motion of confidence in itself or of no confidence in the Government or the Taoiseach.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration7
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Excise cut 25 Mar (20c diesel, 15c petrol); by-elections 22 May: FG's Sean Kyne won Galway West, SocDems' Daniel Ennis won Dublin Central; Budget 2027 on 6 Oct [4]
  2. Vote table: Labour, Social Democrats, PBP, Independent Ireland, Sinn Fein, 100% Redress, Aontu, Greens and independent TDs voted no confidence [3]
  3. Diesel up about 28% and petrol about 25% after the Iran war began; blockades from 7 Apr; about 600 of 1,500 stations out of fuel on 11 Apr; More in Common poll 26 Apr-2 May: 58% support protests [3]
  4. ECB euro reference rate 1.1193 US dollars on 23 Oct 2026 [9]
  5. September 2026: diesel EUR 2.06 a litre (+37c on a year), petrol EUR 1.96 (+24c); CPI +4.1% [6]
  6. Budget 2027 tax package EUR 1.65bn, raised to keep fuel excise cuts until the spring [5]
  7. AA October 2026 survey: diesel 214.76c, petrol 198.16c a litre; next survey 9 Nov [8]

Why it matters

The Fianna Fail-Fine Gael coalition survived a confidence vote by 92 to 78 on 14 Apr 2026, after fuel blockades left about 600 of 1,500 filling stations dry. Its support stood at five above the 87 needed after Michael Healy-Rae resigned as a minister and voted against it. Diesel still cost EUR 2.06 a litre in September, 37c more than a year earlier, and the fuel excise cuts kept in Budget 2027 run only until the spring.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: support five above the majority line, diesel up 37c on a year, excise relief ends in spring, a public-sector pay dispute.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case one lost vote, then an election or a new government.

The other facts on file (4)
  • EUR 505m package (further 10c excise cut, 2.4c off green diesel, sector aid); confidence motion passed 92 to 78 on 14 Apr 2026; Michael Healy-Rae resigned and voted against; McDonald: time for an election [1] (14 Apr 2026)
  • Coalition support 92, five above the 87 needed [2] (14 Apr 2026)
  • April package deferred the planned carbon-tax rise to October [1] (14 Apr 2026)
  • McDonald: Government brazen, time for an election; Martin: opposition claim of no hard choices dishonest; vote 92 to 78 [7] (14 Apr 2026)

Where it sits

Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Irish coalition loses a Dáil confidence vote: Elevated impact · unlikely1 · Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINGERMANYITALYPACIFIC OCEANATLANTIC OCEANINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Bab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalSuez CanalTaiwan Strait11. The Irish coalition loses a Dáil confidence vote: Elevated impact · unlikelyBab el-MandebStrait of HormuzStrait of MalaccaPanama CanalTaiwan StraitARGENTINABRAZILFRANCESPAINITALYINDIAN OCEANMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Government loses a Dáil division on a motion of confidence in itself or of no confidence in the Government or the Taoiseach.

Not under way

Channels 5 on the card

  1. CanadaNo direct Canadian loss sourced.
  2. GovernmentA lost vote would most likely bring an election or a new coalition, with months of caretaker rule (Strature's view).
  3. The budget and lawsFinance bills for the EUR 1.65bn Budget 2027 tax package [5] could be delayed.
  4. Energy policyThe fuel excise cuts kept to the spring and the carbon-tax rise the April package deferred to October would become election issues (Strature's view).
  5. The EUA caretaker Irish government would negotiate in Brussels with less room to move (Strature's view).

Sectors 2

  • Agriculture and food
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Ireland
Sectors
Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics
Goods
Refined fuels
Straits
Strait of Hormuz

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    The coalition holds

    Fuel relief runs to spring and prices ease.

  2. S2

    Spring squeeze

    Excise cuts lapse while prices stay high, protests return and more independents waver.

  3. S3

    A lost vote

    A cost-of-living crisis, or a strike wave, turns enough TDs.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1CSO diesel price below EUR 2 a litre for three months
S2A Government-supporting TD votes against it on a fuel or budget motion
S3A no-confidence motion tabled with named Government-side backers

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Nov 2026 CSO consumer prices and fuel prices for October [6] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 9 Nov 2026 AA Ireland monthly fuel price survey [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. Mar 2027 Fuel excise cuts kept in Budget 2027 lapse in the spring (March to May) [5] Tentative · Window

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SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · IRELAND · strature.net

The other side

A survived vote and a bigger relief package showed the coalition could hold its majority under pressure. A second fuel shock would strengthen the case for cutting oil use in transport and farming (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

9 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Government survives no-confidence motion as Michael Healy-Rae resigns as junior minister. Irish Examiner · 14 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  2. Government survives confidence vote after surprise Michael Healy-Rae resignation. The Irish Times · 14 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  3. 2026 Irish fuel protests. Wikipedia · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  4. 2026 in Ireland. Wikipedia · 25 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  5. Budget 2027. RSM Ireland · 6 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  6. Consumer Price Index September 2026. Central Statistics Office · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  7. Government confidence vote: What was said in the Dail. BreakingNews.ie · 14 Apr 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  8. Petrol and diesel prices (October 2026 survey). AA Ireland · 25 Oct 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 25 Oct 2026
  9. Euro foreign exchange reference rates, US dollar. European Central Bank · 23 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 25 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: reviewed · All risks