Informal miners block Peru's national roads as their permit register ends
The test Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Mar 2027, protests by informal or artisanal miners block the Panamericana Sur or another national road in Peru on at least 5 days in a row (one point or several), as reported by Sutran or by two news sources.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
Peru's register that lets informal miners work while they formalise, REINFO, lapses on 31 Dec 2026. On 27 Oct 2026 the energy and mines minister said there will be no sixth extension, with about 30,000 miners still to formalise. Each earlier deadline brought road blockades: nine days on the Panamericana Sur and other roads in November 2024.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the government refuses a sixth extension; Confemin wants REINFO as it is; about 30,000 miners pending; blockades at earlier deadlines. Brakes: five extensions so far; the MAPE bill's transition to 2028; December 2025 blockade was due to end within hours once an extension came.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: one 5-day blockade on the Panamericana Sur.
The other facts on file (6)
- Five extensions (2019, 2021, 2024, June 2025, December 2025); Confemin met the minister on 18 Aug and wants an extension as it is [2] (27 Aug 2026)
- Congress voted 60-36-8 to extend REINFO to 31 Dec 2026 or until the MAPE law takes effect (first vote); committee chair called it exceptional and not extendable [3] (4 Dec 2025)
- Blockades in their eighth day at seven points; about 60% of Arequipa fuel stations without LPG [5] (27 Nov 2024)
- Ninth day of blockades in Arequipa, Ica, La Libertad and Cusco (Sutran points) [6] (28 Nov 2024)
- About 250 miners blocked the Panamericana Sur at Chala km 618; about 200 vehicles stranded; to be lifted within hours after the Permanent Committee ratified the extension [7] (17 Dec 2025)
- Canadian mining assets in Peru C$11,245m in 2024 [9] (2024)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Between 28 Oct 2026 and 31 Mar 2027, protests by informal or artisanal miners block the Panamericana Sur or another national road in Peru on at least 5 days in a row (one point or several), as reported by Sutran or by two news sources.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaExposure only: C$11.2bn of Canadian mining assets in Peru [9]; no loss sourced.
- Southern road freightBlockades strand fuel, food and passengers on the Lima-Arequipa route [5].
- Mining outputBlockades have reached mine access roads (Pataz, Caravelí) [5][6]; they can slow formal and informal gold output (Strature's view).
- Law and orderAbout 30,000 operators face formal permits or illegality [1].
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Peru
- Sectors
- Road freight, Fuel distribution, Gold mining
- Goods
- Gold, Lpg, Food
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
A sixth extension
Congress passes a short extension or folds REINFO into the MAPE transition; protests stay short.
- S2
Long blockades
REINFO lapses with no law in force; a national strike closes roads for a week or more.
- S3
Law with transition
The MAPE law passes with its regime to 2028 and miners accept it.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A committee vote on a REINFO bill |
| S2 | A Confemin strike call |
| S3 | A plenary vote on the MAPE bill |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 31 Dec 2026 REINFO lapses unless extended or replaced [3] Declared · Outside event
- 31 Mar 2027 End of the scored window Declared · Strature date
- 30 Jun 2028 End of the proposed transition regime (bill) [8] Tentative · Outside event
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The other side
A formal regime could bring miners into tax and environmental rules and cut mercury use (Strature's view). Formal gold buyers and refiners gain from cleaner supply chains.
Connected in Strature
- Peru
- El Niño floods leave 100,000 people in Peru without home or livelihood Shares a channel: Roads in the same rainy season.
Sources
8 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Reinfo no será ampliado: Gobierno pide al Congreso acelerar aprobación de la Ley MAPE. Infobae · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- ¿Hacia una sexta ampliación?: Gobierno prevé presentar propuesta de Ley MAPE recién en noviembre. El Comercio · 27 Aug 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Pleno del Congreso amplía el Reinfo hasta el 31 de diciembre del 2026. Congreso de la República · 4 Dec 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Bloqueos en Arequipa: 3 mineros fallecidos y tramos bloqueados de Panamericana Sur en octavo día. El Búho · 27 Nov 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Bloqueos mineros: van nueve días y carreteras siguen sin paso por Arequipa, Ica, La Libertad y Cusco. El Búho · 28 Nov 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Mineros liberarán Panamericana Sur en Arequipa tras aprobación de extensión del Reinfo. El Búho · 17 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Ley MAPE: Galarreta pide al Congreso evitar ampliar plazos del Reinfo y mantener controles. Diario Correo · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Canadian Mining Assets, by country and region, 2023 and 2024 (p). Natural Resources Canada · 3 Feb 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks