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World risk · Finance and markets

The IMF board has not completed Egypt's final programme review by 31 Mar 2027

The test By 31 Mar 2027, the IMF Executive Board has not completed the eighth and final review of Egypt's Extended Fund Facility arrangement; an extension of the arrangement does not stop the event.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. IMF mission in the field; final disbursement about US$2.3bn; draft to the board by mid-December; 46-month EFF began December 2022, extended to 15 Dec 2026; open items include faster divestment and the state ownership policy [1]
  2. IMF: reserves comfortably above adequate levels; gross financing needs around 40% of GDP in the near term [5]
  3. US$18.3bn of Gulf cash support cannot be withdrawn before the EFF ends; a Saudi deposit of about US$5.4bn at the Central Bank of Egypt falls due in October 2026 [4]

Why it matters

Egypt's IMF programme, extended to 15 Dec 2026, has one review left, worth about US$2.3bn; a mission was in Egypt in late October and a draft is due to the board by mid-December. Earlier reviews slipped, but completion is the base case, with months of slack to 31 Mar 2027.

Why Likelihood 4 Completion is the act that stops the event and is the base case: a mission in the field, a board draft by mid-December, three and a half months of slack to 31 Mar 2027. Pushes: past slips; divestment named as open. Brakes: the mission and timetable. No source doubts the December target.

The other facts on file (2)
  • IMF board approved about US$1.8bn after the latest review, bringing disbursements to US$7.3bn [2] (31 Jul 2026)
  • Board completed the fifth and sixth reviews together, releasing about US$2.3bn [3] (26 Feb 2026)

Where it sits

Suez CanalEGYPTJORDANISRAELSuez Canal11. The IMF board has not completed Egypt's final programme review by 31 Mar 2027: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Egypt IMF final reviewslipsElevated impact · possibleEGYPT IMF FINAL REVIEW SLIPS0500 kmat 27°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
Suez CanalEGYPTISRAELSuez Canal11. The IMF board has not completed Egypt's final programme review by 31 Mar 2027: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Egypt IMF finalreview slipsEGYPT IMF FINAL REVIEW SLIPS0300 kmat 27°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

By 31 Mar 2027, the IMF Executive Board has not completed the eighth and final review of Egypt's Extended Fund Facility arrangement; an extension of the arrangement does not stop the event.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. FundingAbout US$2.3bn would wait, against gross financing needs of around 40% of GDP [1][5].
  3. Gulf deposits and inflowsThe programme anchors Gulf deposits; a slip would weigh on renewal talks [4].

Sectors 2

  • Banks and insurers
  • Government bonds

Countries 2

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Egypt, Saudi Arabia.

Sectors
Banks and insurers, Government bonds

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    On time

    The board completes the review in December 2026.

  2. S2

    A short slip

    Talks run into early 2027; the board acts by March.

  3. S3

    A long slip

    Divestment stalls past 31 Mar 2027.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1An IMF press release
S2A staff-level agreement in January 2027
S3A further extension

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 Draft of the final review due to the IMF board (mid-December) [1] Tentative · Outside event
  2. 15 Dec 2026 Scheduled end of the extended arrangement [1] Tentative · Outside event

    Remind me

  3. 31 Mar 2027 Date on which the event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · EGYPT · strature.net

The other side

The mission was in the field with a December target, and the last two board decisions went through, if late [1][2][3]. The IMF said reserves remained comfortably above adequate levels (23 Sep 2026) [5].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. IMF sets December target to clear Egypt's last programme review. The National · 29 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Egypt unlocks $1.8bn IMF funding after passing review. The National · 31 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Egypt unlocks roughly $2.3bn after IMF completes reviews. The National · 26 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Egypt races to secure $5.4bn Saudi deposit amid regional wars. The New Arab · 22 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. IMF: Egypt Absorbs Economic Shocks of War. Asharq Al-Awsat · 23 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks