LNG output at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim stops for 30 days or more
The test The GTA floating LNG unit off Mauritania and Senegal produces no LNG for 30 days in a row, reported by the operator, a partner or either government, by 1 Nov 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
The Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) project off Mauritania and Senegal ships all its LNG from one floating unit of 2.7 million tonnes a year. It reached commercial operation in June 2025, ran above nameplate in early 2026 and lifted 18.5 cargoes in the first half of 2026. This card asks whether that single unit stops for a month while Qatari supply is already cut.
Why Likelihood 2 Push: a single unit carries the whole project, early in its life. Brakes: output at or above nameplate since mid-2025, no outage reported in H1 2026.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case a 30-day stop.
The other facts on file (4)
- First LNG February 2025, first cargo April 2025; about 2.4 mtpa (about 90% of 2.7 mtpa) at commercial operation in June 2025; 20-year lease [2] (23 Jun 2025)
- Partners expect cargo liftings to nearly double in 2026 [1] (5 Jan 2026)
- Q1 2026 output about 2.85 mt a year, above 2.7 nameplate; 9.5 cargoes in Q1 (partner's statement) [3] (6 May 2026)
- Nine cargoes in Q2 2026, 18.5 in H1; about 2.65 mtpa in Q2 (warmer weather); 2026 guidance 32-36 cargoes kept [4] (3 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- LNG output at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim stops for 30 days or moreImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 2 of 10, Low. · Mauritania
How it spreads
The GTA floating LNG unit off Mauritania and Senegal produces no LNG for 30 days in a row, reported by the operator, a partner or either government, by 1 Nov 2027.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Gas buyersA month's stop removes about three cargoes at the 2026 guidance of 32-36 [4] from the Atlantic market (Strature's arithmetic).
- Mauritania and SenegalBoth host states lose LNG revenue for the period (Strature's view; no figure sourced).
- PricesIn a market short of Qatari LNG, a lost cargo stream adds to European and Asian price pressure (Strature's view; no price read).
Goods 1
Sectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 5
- Mauritania primary
- Senegal primary
- Spain
- Germany
- United Kingdom
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Mauritania, Senegal, Spain, Germany, United Kingdom
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines
- Goods
- LNG
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Steady run
Output stays near capacity.
- S2
Short trips
Outages of days for maintenance.
- S3
Long stop
A technical or weather failure halts output for a month or more.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Partner quarterly reports with cargo counts in line |
| S2 | A partner report of a quarter-on-quarter dip |
| S3 | A partner or government notice of a halt |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Feb 2027 Partner full-year 2026 results with cargo totals (expected) [1] Tentative · Outside event
- 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
A steady run adds Atlantic supply when Qatari cargoes are missing, a gain for Senegal and Mauritania (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- LNG
- Spain
- Germany
- United Kingdom
- Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 Shares a channel: Both cut LNG supply to the same buyers; the Qatari stop is under way.
- A winter LNG crunch forces gas rationing in Europe, Japan or South Korea Shares a channel: A GTA stop would add to a winter LNG shortfall (Strature's view).
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- BP and partners expect Tortue LNG cargo liftings to nearly double in 2026. LNG Prime · 5 Jan 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Gimi FLNG enters commercial ops at BP's GTA project off Western Africa. Offshore Engineer (OE Digital) · 23 Jun 2025 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Projet gazier GTA - 2,85 millions de tonnes de GNL produites. AllAfrica (French) · 6 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Kosmos Energy announces Q2 2026 results. Energy-Pedia · 3 Aug 2026 · Industry · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks