The last Crete-Cyprus cable surveys are not finished by mid-2027
The test By 30 Jun 2027, the remaining seabed surveys for the Crete-Cyprus section of the Great Sea Interconnector, in the waters between Kasos and Cyprus, have not been completed, as stated by the project company, Greece's grid operator, the Greek or Cypriot government, or two independent news sources.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Likelihood 6 to 4.
- Survey ship sailed from Naples for Heraklion; NAVTEX expected in the first ten days of November; Fidan: Ankara requires written notification; Gerapetritis: only Greece's authorisation will be requested [6]
- Regulator: 280 km of 900 km laid; remaining surveys about six months; completion expected January 2031; Damianos expected the NAVTEX by end-October; Cyprus ties its first EUR 25m payment to it [4]
- About 60% of surveys done (Admie); Türkiye's defence ministry will not permit what it considers unauthorised activity in those waters; Gerapetritis called obstruction inconceivable [3]
- Mitsotakis and Macron discussed next steps; surveys planned to resume this autumn from where they stopped in 2024 [5]
Why it matters
The Great Sea Interconnector would give Cyprus its first power link to Europe, through Crete; about 280 km of the 900 km Crete-Cyprus cable is already laid. Its last stretch waits on the seabed survey east of Kasos, in waters where Greece and Türkiye make competing claims: about six months of work, stopped since 2024. A survey ship was heading for Heraklion in late October, waiting for a Greek navigation notice (NAVTEX).
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: six months of work leaves little slack; the NAVTEX target slipped; Ankara's demand for written notification; the 2024 stand-off; every project date has slipped. Brakes: ship in place, NAVTEX expected; Greek-French talks on next steps; Greek resolve.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: surveys unfinished on 30 Jun 2027.
The other facts on file (2)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- The last Crete-Cyprus cable surveys are not finished by mid-2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Cyprus
How it spreads
By 30 Jun 2027, the remaining seabed surveys for the Crete-Cyprus section of the Great Sea Interconnector, in the waters between Kasos and Cyprus, have not been completed, as stated by the project company, Greece's grid operator, the Greek or Cypriot government, or two independent news sources.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- EnergyThe cable cannot be laid across the last stretch, so Cyprus stays an isolated grid for longer.
- PoliticsCyprus's first payment stays held, and the Greek-Turkish dispute over the waters stays open.
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Done by spring
A November NAVTEX lets the work end by May.
- S2
Stop-start
Surveys pause under Turkish counter-notices and run past June.
- S3
No start
The NAVTEX keeps slipping.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Admie or the project company reports the ship working east of Kasos by 2026-12-15 |
| S2 | A Turkish NAVTEX over the survey area between November 2026 and February 2027 |
| S3 | No Greek NAVTEX for the area by 2026-12-31 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Nov 2026 NAVTEX for the survey area expected in the first ten days of November [6] Tentative · Strature date
- 30 Jun 2027 Event judged: remaining surveys completed or not [4] Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- Cyprus
- Greece
- Turkey
- A Greek-Turkish standoff at sea south or east of Crete Shares a channel: The survey ship east of Kasos is that card's flashpoint.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Nexans confirms rescheduling of GSI, delivery slips beyond 2029. Cyprus Mail · 7 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Greece rejects Turkish permission demand as Cyprus-Crete power cable surveys near restart. Greek City Times · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Final cost of GSI remains an unkown. Cyprus Mail · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Mitsotakis and Macron set plan to resume Cyprus power cable survey off Kasos. Proto Thema · 10 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cable survey vessel sails from Naples, due in Heraklion on Tuesday as NAVTEX awaited. Proto Thema · 23 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Interconnector research vessel monitored by Turkish navy. Cyprus Mail · 20 Aug 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: Likelihood 6 to 4 · All risks