Ghana's 2026/27 cocoa crop comes in below 500,000 tonnes
The test COCOBOD's reported purchases for the 2026/27 season, or its official estimate of them published by 1 Nov 2027, are below 500,000 tonnes.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Ghana farm-gate price about 2,100-2,200 CFA francs a kg against 1,200 in Cote d'Ivoire [5]
- New producer price GH¢42,400 a tonne, up from GH¢41,392, effective 25 Sep 2026 [4]
- COCOBOD August 2026 estimate about 650,000 t against 750,000 t in 2025/26; earlier outlook 450,000-550,000 t; ICE stocks at a two-year high [3]
- Season not open by mid-September; buyers owed about GH¢4bn; buyers' chamber puts the need at about GH¢26bn; COCOBOD chief executive: about half via 270-day notes [2]
- 2023/24: projected 800,000 t, harvested 432,145 t; 333,767 t rolled over; US$941.58m foregone revenue (COCOBOD chief executive) [2]
Why it matters
Ghana opened its 2026/27 cocoa season late, on 25 Sep 2026, with licensed buyers owed about GH¢4bn and COCOBOD planning to raise about half its purchase money through local notes. COCOBOD's August estimate of about 650,000 t sits well above the line, but it missed its forecast badly in 2023/24.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: funding gap, buyers' arrears, late start. Brakes: COCOBOD's August estimate of about 650,000 t and last season's 750,000 t; a price gap that favours Ghana. Not 5: no current source puts the crop under the line.
Why Impact 5 Threshold case a crop just under 500,000 t.
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Ghana's 2026/27 cocoa crop comes in below 500,000 tonnesImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Ghana
How it spreads
COCOBOD's reported purchases for the 2026/27 season, or its official estimate of them published by 1 Nov 2027, are below 500,000 tonnes.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Ghana's revenueA short crop cuts export earnings and the cash COCOBOD needs to repay its notes.
- World cocoaLess supply from a major origin tightens the market.
Goods 1
- Cocoa
Sectors 2
- Agriculture and food
- Banks and insurers
Countries 2
- Ghana primary
- Ivory Coast
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Ghana, Ivory Coast
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Banks and insurers
- Goods
- Cocoa
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Near estimate
Purchases reach 600,000-650,000 t.
- S2
Short of funding
Late payments slow buying and beans drift to other channels.
- S3
Under the line
Weather and disease cut the crop to the 2023/24 level.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | COCOBOD's mid-season purchase figures |
| S2 | Buyers' arrears still unpaid in January 2027 |
| S3 | A COCOBOD revision under 550,000 t |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jan 2027 COCOBOD mid-season purchase figures [2] Tentative · Outside event
- Sep 2027 End of the 2026/27 main and light crop [2] Tentative · Outside event
The other side
Ghana's higher farm-gate price may draw beans from Cote d'Ivoire and lift recorded purchases [5].
Connected in Strature
- A cocoa farmers' sales stoppage in Cote d'Ivoire visibly cuts deliveries Shares a channel: The same world cocoa supply.
- The EU deforestation rule starts to apply to cocoa on 30 Dec 2026 without another delay Shares a channel: The same cocoa exports to the EU.
- World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150 Shares a channel: Food commodity prices.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Ghana struggles to raise local funds for delayed cocoa season as investors demand higher returns. MyJoyOnline (JoyNews Research) · 16 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cocoa falls as African harvests rise and ICE inventories approach a two-year high. XTB · 18 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Ghana opens 2026/27 cocoa season with producer price of GH¢42,400 per tonne. Ghana News Agency · 26 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cacao en Cote d'Ivoire : greve et concurrence du Ghana, la campagne sous tension. Afrik.com · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks