A cocoa farmers' sales stoppage in Cote d'Ivoire visibly cuts deliveries
The test By 1 Nov 2027, a stoppage or bean-retention called by an Ivorian farmers' union or cooperative group is reported by two sources to have cut cocoa deliveries to buyers, warehouses or ports for at least seven days, or the Conseil Cafe-Cacao or the OIA says deliveries fell because of it.
Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ 16 Sep 2026: SYNAP-CI calls an unlimited bean-retention
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
Why it matters
Cote d'Ivoire paid 2,800 CFA francs a kg for the 2025/26 main cocoa crop, cut the farm-gate price to 1,200 in March 2026 and held it there for 2026/27. A farmers' union called an unlimited bean-retention on 16 Sep 2026, but many farmers kept selling and the trade body said marketing continued. The risk is a stoppage that actually cuts deliveries.
Why Likelihood 4 A union call alone happened on 16 Sep 2026, before the window, so the event asks for a stoppage that cuts deliveries. Pushes: the farm-gate cut from 2,800 to 1,200 CFA francs a kg; a live union call. Brakes: Haut-Sassandra (Daloa) farmers rejected the call, farmers sell for school fees, the OIA says buying continues.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case deliveries cut for seven days.
The other facts on file (3)
- Intermediate crop opened 4 Mar 2026 at 1,200 CFA francs a kg [2] (5 Mar 2026)
- Agriculture Minister Bruno Nabagne Kone, 1 Sep 2026: 1,200 is the third-best main-crop price, behind 2,800 (2025/26) and 1,800 (2024/25) [1] (2 Sep 2026)
- 2026/27 main-crop price 1,200 CFA francs a kg, coffee 1,300 [3] (1 Sep 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- A cocoa farmers' sales stoppage in Cote d'Ivoire visibly cuts deliveriesImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Ivory Coast
How it spreads
By 1 Nov 2027, a stoppage or bean-retention called by an Ivorian farmers' union or cooperative group is reported by two sources to have cut cocoa deliveries to buyers, warehouses or ports for at least seven days, or the Conseil Cafe-Cacao or the OIA says deliveries fell because of it.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- World cocoaSlower arrivals would tighten a market where ICE stocks were at a two-year high (Strature's view).
- GhanaBeans may cross into Ghana, where the farm-gate price is higher.
Goods 1
- Cocoa
Sectors 2
- Agriculture and food
- Ports and logistics
Countries 2
- Ivory Coast primary
- Ghana
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Ivory Coast, Ghana
- Sectors
- Agriculture and food, Ports and logistics
- Goods
- Cocoa
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Call fades
Farmers sell through the main crop.
- S2
Partial stoppage
Some regions hold beans for a week or more.
- S3
Wide stoppage
Arrivals fall sharply and the regulator reopens the price.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Weekly port-arrival data |
| S2 | A second union joining the call |
| S3 | A price review before the 2027 intermediate crop |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Mar 2027 Intermediate-crop price set (precedent 4 Mar 2026) [2] Tentative · Outside event
- Sep 2027 Main-crop price for 2027/28 (precedent 1 Sep 2026) [3] Tentative · Outside event
The other side
A failed retention would show the regulated marketing system holding even after a deep price cut, and keeps beans flowing to exporters [4].
Connected in Strature
- Ghana's 2026/27 cocoa crop comes in below 500,000 tonnes Shares a channel: The same world cocoa supply and border trade.
- The EU deforestation rule starts to apply to cocoa on 30 Dec 2026 without another delay Shares a channel: Farmers' costs in the same season.
- World food prices climb back to 2022 levels: the FAO Food Price Index tops 150 Shares a channel: Food commodity prices.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Journees nationales du cacao et du chocolat : le prix bord champ du kg de cacao reste a 1200 F, les justifications de Bruno Kone. Connection Ivoirienne · 2 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cote d'Ivoire : le prix de la campagne intermediaire de cacao fixe a 1 200 FCFA/kg. Financial Afrik · 5 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cote d'Ivoire : JNCC, cacao a 1 200 FCFA, cafe a 1 300 FCFA, le gouvernement devoile les prix de la campagne 2026-2027. Koaci · 1 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cacao en Cote d'Ivoire : greve et concurrence du Ghana, la campagne sous tension. Afrik.com · 2 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Cocoa falls as African harvests rise and ICE inventories approach a two-year high. XTB · 18 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks