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World risk · Energy and resources

Sri Lanka's grid fails island-wide again

The test Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, Sri Lanka suffers an island-wide power failure, as reported by the grid operator, the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) or the energy ministry (a planned rotation of cuts alone does not count).

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth6
Duration1
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. The Cabinet spokesman denied coal quality was to blame and said an internal investigation was under way [5]
  2. PUCSL approved one-hour rotating power cuts in four groups on 19-21 Oct 2026 for insufficient generation after the Lakvijaya plant became unavailable following the blackout [3]
  3. Power cuts scheduled across Sri Lanka for three days [4]
  4. The National System Operator said the outage followed the sudden disconnection of a power plant unit, opened an internal investigation and kept the 810 MW Norochcholai (Lakvijaya) coal plant offline [2]
  5. The national grid tripped on 17 Oct 2026 and the country was without grid power for more than two hours; officials said surplus solar output may have caused it; the whole grid also shut down in February 2025 [1]

Why it matters

Sri Lanka's national grid failed on 17 Oct 2026, the third island-wide blackout since December 2023. The latest was followed by three days of rotating cuts while the coal plant was out. The cause of the latest one is still under investigation.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the cause of the latest failure is unresolved. Brakes: an investigation is under way; no source treats a further failure as the base case. 5.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Sri Lanka's population was 21,781,800 at the 2024 census [6] (30 Oct 2025)
  • The CEB began an investigation into the island-wide power failure of 9 Feb 2025 [7] (9 Feb 2025)
  • The CEB said lightning on the Kotmale-Biyagama line caused the island-wide outage of 9 Dec 2023 [8] (10 Dec 2023)

Where it sits

SRI LANKA11. Sri Lanka's grid fails island-wide again: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Sri Lanka's grid failsisland-wide againElevated impact · possibleSRI LANKA GRID BLACKS OUT AGAIN0250 kmat 8°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
SRI LANKA11. Sri Lanka's grid fails island-wide again: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Sri Lanka gridblacks out againSRI LANKA GRID BLACKS OUT AGAIN0200 kmat 8°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 4 Nov 2026 and 4 Nov 2027, Sri Lanka suffers an island-wide power failure, as reported by the grid operator, the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) or the energy ministry (a planned rotation of cuts alone does not count).

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Industry and portsGrid power stops island-wide for hours [1].
  3. RationingRotating cuts follow while coal units are out [3][4].

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Sri Lanka.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics, Textiles apparel
Goods
Electricity

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Fixed in time

    The investigation's fixes are put in place.

  2. S2

    Cuts, no collapse

    Rotating cuts at times of low output, but the grid holds.

  3. S3

    Fourth failure

    Another island-wide trip, likely at the midday solar peak.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The investigation report published by January 2027
S2PUCSL approves further rotating cuts by April 2027
S3A grid frequency event reported in the 2027 dry season

No probability is given for the three paths.

The other side

The rotating cuts were set for three days [3][4]. The government ruled out coal quality as the cause [5].

Connected in Strature

Sources

8 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Sri Lanka suffers nationwide electricity blackout. The Star (AFP) · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Electricity supply under pressure as Norochcholai remains offline: Update from NSO. Newswire · 18 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. PUCSL approves one-hour power cuts for 3 days: Schedule released. Newswire · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Power cuts scheduled across Sri Lanka for three days. Ada Derana · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. Govt. denies link between coal quality and ongoing power disruption. The Morning · 20 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Press Release: Census of Population and Housing 2024, Basic Population and Housing Characteristics. Department of Census and Statistics · 30 Oct 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  7. Investigation into island-wide power failure: CEB. Ada Derana · 9 Feb 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  8. CEB reveals cause of island-wide power outage. Ada Derana · 10 Dec 2023 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks