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Bulgaria's 2026 budget deficit comes in at 4.5% of GDP or more

The test Eurostat's April 2027 fiscal notification, or a later revision published by 4 Nov 2027, puts Bulgaria's 2026 general government deficit at 4.5% of GDP or more.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Bulgaria's GDP at current prices: EUR 116,548.5m in 2025 [5]

Why it matters

Bulgaria joined the euro on 1 Jan 2026 and is under an EU excessive deficit procedure. The Commission forecast a 2026 deficit of 4.1% of GDP; the 2026 budget sets a cash deficit of 5.7%. Eurostat's April 2027 notification will show which way it went.

Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: the government's own plan at 5.7; a first quarter at 7.6 on the accrual basis; the Prime Minister's statement that this year's deficit will be larger. Brakes: the Commission's 4.1; the expenditure cap; year-end cuts; the 5.7 is a cash figure, while the event counts the accrual deficit.

The other facts on file (7)
  • The Council confirmed an excessive deficit procedure for Bulgaria; deadline for effective action 15 Oct 2026; net expenditure growth caps of 4.2% (2026), 3.4% (2027), 3.4% (2028) and 3.2% (2029); deficit below 3% of GDP by 2029 [1] (26 Jun 2026)
  • The Finance Ministry's draft budget projected deficits of 5.7% of GDP in 2026, 3.8% in 2027 and 3.0% in 2028 [1] (26 Jun 2026)
  • Commission spring 2026 forecast: deficit 3.5% of GDP in 2025, 4.1% in 2026, 4.3% in 2027 [2] (21 May 2026)
  • Eurostat preliminary data: Q1 2026 deficit 7.6% of GDP, the highest in the EU [3] (21 Jul 2026)
  • PM Radev said last year's deficit was well above 3% and this year's will be even larger [4] (29 May 2026)
  • The 2026 budget bill sets a consolidated fiscal programme deficit of 5.7% of GDP; MPs from four parties criticised it in committee [6] (7 Jul 2026)
  • BNT reported that financial sanctions were not foreseen at that stage of the procedure [7] (3 Jun 2026)

Where it sits

BULGARIASERBIA11. Bulgaria's 2026 budget deficit comes in at 4.5% of GDP or more: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Bulgaria's 2026 budgetdeficit comes in at 4.5%of GDP or moreLow impact · possibleBULGARIA'S DEFICIT TOPS 4.5%0200 kmat 43°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
BULGARIASERBIA11. Bulgaria's 2026 budget deficit comes in at 4.5% of GDP or more: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Bulgaria's deficittops 4.5%BULGARIA'S DEFICIT TOPS 4.5%0200 kmat 43°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Eurostat's April 2027 fiscal notification, or a later revision published by 4 Nov 2027, puts Bulgaria's 2026 general government deficit at 4.5% of GDP or more.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. BudgetA larger 2026 gap makes the 2027-28 correction steeper under the expenditure caps [1].
  3. ProcedureUnder the procedure, possible sanctions follow if effective action is not taken [4][7].
  4. MarketsA new euro member missing its path could face rating pressure (not sourced).

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Bulgaria.

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Near the forecast

    Year-end restraint keeps the 2026 deficit near 4%.

  2. S2

    Over the line

    Spending runs ahead and the deficit lands between the two projections, at 4.5% or more.

  3. S3

    Plan realised

    The deficit reaches the government's 5.7% and the Council steps up the procedure.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1The Commission's autumn 2026 forecast at or below 4.1%
S2Eurostat's April 2027 notification
S3A Commission finding on effective action in late 2026 or early 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Apr 2027 Eurostat's spring fiscal notification of 2026 deficits [2] Tentative · Outside event
SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · BULGARIA · strature.net

The other side

The Commission's 4.1% forecast sits under the threshold [2], and the expenditure cap and year-end spending cuts can hold the 2026 outcome down [1].

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. EU Council Confirms Excessive Deficit Procedure for Bulgaria, Sets 2029 Deadline for Fiscal Correction. BTA · 26 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  2. Economic forecast for Bulgaria. European Commission · 21 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  3. Eurostat: Bulgaria's deficit in the first quarter was nearly 8%. Economic.bg · 21 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  4. Prime Minister Radev Warns of Possible Sanctions under Excessive Deficit Procedure. BTA · 29 May 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  5. GDP and main components, current prices (nama_10_gdp), Bulgaria. Eurostat · 22 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  6. Budget Bill Clears First Committee Vote Despite 5.7% Deficit Concerns. BTA · 7 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026
  7. European Commission proposes opening excessive deficit procedure for Bulgaria. BNT · 3 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 4 Nov 2026

Reviewed 4 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks