Bangladesh has no new IMF programme by the end of June 2027
The test No new IMF lending arrangement for Bangladesh is approved by the IMF Executive Board between 28 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, as shown by the absence of an IMF press release announcing Board approval by that date.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
The Rahman government chose to leave Bangladesh's US$5.5bn IMF programme, saying some conditions did not match its priorities, and asked for a new one. IMF staff said in July that talks would take place in the coming months. The IMF lists no new arrangement on 28 Oct. The risk is that the gap runs past 30 Jun 2027.
Why Likelihood 4 Drivers: the government's objection to conditions; no arrangement listed three months after the July visit; hard asks on subsidies and banks while the war keeps subsidies high; reserves that reduce urgency. Brakes: the minister's broad framework; the government's request; the IMF's intent to discuss parameters.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case: no Board approval by 30 Jun 2027.
The other facts on file (4)
- Government chose to exit the US$5.5bn programme, saying some conditions did not match its priorities; about US$3.8bn drawn [1] (16 Jul 2026)
- Finance minister said on 13 Jul both sides agreed a broad framework, reforms in phases [1] (13 Jul 2026)
- IMF staff: FY2027 growth 3.5%, below 3% medium term without decisive reforms; banking strains a key downside risk [2] (17 Jul 2026)
- LNG subsidy need FY2025-26 Tk16,600 crore against an original allocation of Tk6,000 crore; the war added Tk10,600 crore [5] (23 Jun 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
No new IMF lending arrangement for Bangladesh is approved by the IMF Executive Board between 28 Oct 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, as shown by the absence of an IMF press release announcing Board approval by that date.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- FinancingWorld Bank and ADB money also sought; a missing IMF anchor can slow other lenders.
- The currencyA weaker anchor for the crawling peg.
- BanksThe bank clean-up timetable rests on the government alone.
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Bangladesh
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers, Energy and pipelines, Public finance
- Goods
- LNG, Fuel
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Deal by the budget
Staff-level agreement in the winter and Board approval before the FY2028 budget.
- S2
Bridge from others
The World Bank and ADB lend while IMF talks drag on.
- S3
Long gap
Talks stall on subsidies or bank reform, and the year ends with no programme.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | An IMF staff-level agreement statement |
| S2 | World Bank or ADB budget support approvals |
| S3 | LNG subsidy allocation in the FY2028 budget |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Jun 2027 FY2028 budget presented (month by custom) Tentative · Outside event
- 30 Jun 2027 End of FY2027 and of the scored window Declared · Strature date
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Connected in Strature
- LNG
- Bangladesh
- Bangladesh leaves the LDC group on 24 Nov 2026 without an extension Shares a channel: The same reform test.
- Qatar keeps force majeure on Asian LNG past November 2026 Driven by: The LNG subsidy bill.
- Bangladesh sheds 2,000 MW of power at peak again Shares a channel: Energy costs and subsidies.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- IMF says Bangladesh programme talks to continue in coming months (Reuters). Yahoo Finance · 16 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- IMF cuts Bangladesh's FY27 growth forecast to 3.5 pct. Xinhua · 17 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Bangladesh country page. International Monetary Fund · 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
- Economic buffer: gross forex reserves reach $36 billion. The Daily Star · 7 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- LNG subsidy nearly triples to Tk16,600cr amid Iran war supply shock. The Business Standard · 23 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 6 Oct 2026
- Bangladesh remittances hit $35.59 billion in FY2025-26. The Daily Star · 3 Sep 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks