Costa Rica rations electricity in the 2027 dry season
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 31 Jul 2027, ICE or the government announces scheduled rotating power cuts for customers in more than one province.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- NOAA: strong to very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 [3]
Why it matters
Costa Rica's grid runs mostly on hydropower, and the state utility ICE rationed power nationwide in May 2024 when an El Niño drought emptied its reservoirs. For 2027, ICE's own planning says the system lacks the autonomy to face very dry scenarios, while ICE denies any immediate risk of rationing. A large dam is out for works until mid-2027, Panama has capped extra power sales, and a strong El Niño runs into early 2027.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: El Niño; the Reventazón outage; Panama's import cap. Brakes: the thermal hire from November 2026; ICE's public denial of any immediate risk, its new solar and its head's statement that reserves cover 2027. ICE's planning warning against its public denial is a split with a cited source on each side, so 5.
The other facts on file (7)
- Reventazón out for works 24 Oct 2026 to 30 Jun 2027; Sandillal, Cachí and Miravalles II maintenance in December 2026 [1] (22 May 2026)
- ICE: for 2027 the system lacks the autonomy to face very dry hydrological scenarios; ICE then denied any immediate risk of rationing [1] (22 May 2026)
- ICE hiring about 273 MW of rented thermal power, about US$415.8m for a 30-month operating period, by urgent direct contract, to secure supply between November 2026 and December 2029 [1] (22 May 2026)
- ICE: no firm purchase contract with Panama and no imports planned for the rest of 2026; its executive president said reserves cover demand through 2027 [5] (21 May 2026)
- ICE: no immediate risk of rationing in any region; three ICE solar plants under construction will add 154 MW [4] (25 May 2026)
- Panama's president suspended any increase in power sales to Costa Rica on 21 May 2026 [1] (22 May 2026)
- ICE rationed power nationwide from 13 May 2024, one to three hours a day per customer [2] (9 May 2024)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 31 Jul 2027, ICE or the government announces scheduled rotating power cuts for customers in more than one province.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Industry and free zonesFactories and services face scheduled outages or run diesel backup at a cost; in 2024 high-voltage customers were spared [2].
- Power pricesThermal rental and fuel raise ICE's costs, which pass to tariffs over time [1].
- Regional gridCosta Rica would have to bid for spot imports on the regional grid, with no firm contract with Panama [1][5].
Sectors 1
- Energy and pipelines
Countries 3
- Costa Rica primary
- Panama
- Nicaragua
Who is exposed
No figure on file: Costa Rica, Panama, Nicaragua.
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Manufacturing, Households
- Goods
- Electricity, Diesel
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Thermal bridge
Rented plants arrive in time and reservoirs hold.
- S2
Tight but no cuts
Spot outages and appeals to save power, no schedule.
- S3
Rationing
ICE publishes rotating cut schedules, as in May 2024.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | Rented thermal units in service by February 2027 |
| S2 | ICE calls for voluntary savings in March-April 2027 |
| S3 | Reservoir levels at Arenal below 2024 levels in April 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 Maintenance at Sandillal, Cachí and Miravalles II [1] Declared · Outside event
- Mar 2027 End of the season NOAA's El Niño outlook covers [3] Declared · Outside event
- Apr 2027 Peak of the dry season, when cuts came in 2024 [2] Tentative · Window
- 30 Jun 2027 Reventazón back from works [1] Declared · Outside event
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
The squeeze speeds private solar, storage and wind contracts (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Costa Rica
- Panama
- Nicaragua
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: El Niño drives the dry season that empties the reservoirs.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Salidas de operación de plantas Reventazón, Sandillal, Cachí y Miravalles por mantenimientos presionan al ICE por electricidad para 2027. Semanario Universidad · 22 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Cortes en electricidad serán de 1 a 3 horas diarias a partir del lunes. CRHoy · 9 May 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- ENSO diagnostic discussion. NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- ICE descarta riesgo de racionamiento eléctrico y defiende plan de mantenimiento y expansión. El Mundo CR · 25 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Esto dice el ICE tras anuncio de Panamá de suspender venta de electricidad a Costa Rica. Teletica · 21 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks