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Norway curbs power exports to Europe

The test Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Storting adopts a decision, or the government adopts a law or regulation, that lets or requires Norway's transmission system operator to cut interconnector export capacity when reservoir filling is below a set level outside declared power rationing, or the Storting or the Ministry of Energy formally decides that Skagerrak 1 and 2 will not be renewed.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth1
Duration9
Hard to substitute5
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Statnett: SK1 and SK2 expected in operation until 2026; renewal NOK 10-16bn; earliest application 2027 [2]
  2. Storting elections are held every four years by the end of September [15]
  3. Likelihood 2 to 3; Impact 4 to 5.
  4. Norway reservoirs 69.5% full in week 43 2026 (to 25 Oct) against a week-43 median of 82.6% (69.3% in week 42) [8]
  5. NO2 reservoirs 53.6% full in week 43 2026 (52.9% in week 42), against a median of 83.9% and a reference minimum of 53.8% [9]
  6. NO1 reservoirs 77.8% full in week 43 2026 (74.7% in week 42), against a reference minimum of 81.1% [9]
  7. Skagerrak 2 back in normal service on 20 Sep 2026; repair above NOK 160m shared by Statnett and Energinet; faults on the two oldest cables may come more often [14]

Why it matters

Reservoirs in east and south-west Norway (NO1, NO2) are below their lowest week-43 level in NVE's reference series, and five parties voted for a rule letting Statnett cut export capacity when reservoirs run low. The Storting rejected it 54-47 in June 2026, and the Labour government says its 2024 mechanism is enough. A decision on renewing the two oldest Denmark cables cannot come before a licence application, now due no earlier than the second half of 2027.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: NO2 and NO1 filling below their reference minimums in week 43 (NVE, 28 Oct 2026); record net exports in 2025; Labour's congress against Skagerrak renewal; the June-September 2026 Skagerrak 2 outage and Statnett's warning of more frequent faults.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case: a reservoir rule adopted and usable in dry periods; key price the NO2 day-ahead price (no move read).

The other facts on file (14)
  • NVE median reference period 2006-2025 [10] (Aug 2026)
  • Rodt quoted NVE expecting the lowest filling in several reservoirs for 30 years [5] (9 Jun 2026)
  • Norway's net power exports 22.8 TWh in 2025, the highest on record [4] (26 May 2026)
  • Energy minister: net imports in 12 of the first 21 weeks of 2026; coldest January and February in 16 years [5] (9 Jun 2026)
  • Dokument 8:235 S asked for Statnett powers to cut export capacity when main reservoirs are below median; majority A, H, MDG, V against; FrP, SV, Sp, R for [4] (26 May 2026)
  • Storting debated Innst. 374 S on 9 Jun 2026 [5] (9 Jun 2026)
  • Storting rejected proposals 1-3 (export curb rule) 54-47 on 9 Jun 2026, KrF voting with FrP, SV, Sp and R; proposal 4 (end the Skagerrak study) lost 61-38 [13] (9 Jun 2026)
  • 2025 election seats: Ap 53, FrP 47, H 24, SV 9, Sp 9, R 9, MDG 8, KrF 7, V 3 (169) [11] (17 Sep 2025)
  • Under the 2024 stepped mechanism, Statnett can be ordered to limit exports only under power rationing, subject to EEA and trade rules [7] (13 Feb 2024)
  • Skagerrak 1 and 2 built 1976-77; without them Norway-Denmark capacity falls from 1,700 MW to 1,200 MW; licence application earliest H2 2027 [1] (16 Jan 2026)
  • Skagerrak 2 out of service from 2 Jun 2026; capacity 1,632 MW to 1,387 MW [3] (8 Jun 2026)
  • Labour congress voted against renewal in spring 2025; Sp motion to stop the study lost narrowly in autumn 2025 [1] (16 Jan 2026)
  • European Commission: a minimum-filling rule is possible but not closing borders to power exchange [12] (31 Aug 2022)
  • NorNed links Norway and the Netherlands (700 MW); Norway depends on high capacity to Sweden and Denmark [16] (24 Jan 2022)

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Norway curbs power exports to Europe. Impact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Norway curbs power exports to EuropeImpact 5 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 3 of 10, Low. · Norway
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 28 Oct 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · NORWAY · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 26 Oct 2026 and 25 Oct 2027, the Storting adopts a decision, or the government adopts a law or regulation, that lets or requires Norway's transmission system operator to cut interconnector export capacity when reservoir filling is below a set level outside declared power rationing, or the Storting or the Ministry of Energy formally decides that Skagerrak 1 and 2 will not be renewed.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian exposure was found.
  2. EnergyA reservoir rule would hold water in Norway in dry spells, lowering prices in the NO2 zone, where reservoirs were 53.6% full in week 43 [9], and leaving less flexible hydropower for neighbours (Strature's view).
  3. RulesA curb would test the EEA agreement; the Commission said in 2022 that closing borders to power exchange is not allowed [12].
  4. GridWithout Skagerrak 1 and 2, Norway-Denmark capacity drops by 500 MW, from 1,700 MW to 1,200 MW [1], about 29% of that border (Strature calculation from [1]).

Goods 1

  • Electricity

Sectors 1

  • Energy and pipelines

Who is exposed

Countries
Norway, Denmark, Germany, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Sweden
Sectors
Energy and pipelines
Goods
Electricity
Companies
Statnett, Energinet

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Mechanism holds

    A wet spring refills reservoirs and the 2024 mechanism stays the only tool.

  2. S2

    Dry-winter turn

    Low filling into spring pushes Labour or Hoyre to back a reservoir rule.

  3. S3

    Cables wind down

    Statnett files in 2027 and the ministry refuses, or a new fault on the ageing cables leads to retirement.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1NO1 and NO2 filling back above their medians in NVE's weekly figures
S2A new Storting motion on export curbs winning a committee majority
S3Statnett's licence application, earliest H2 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 4 Nov 2026 NVE reservoir statistics, then weekly (signpost for the rule) [8] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

  2. Apr 2027 End of winter draw-down window, Nov 2026 - Apr 2027, with NO2 near or below its reference minimum (Strature's estimate) [9] Tentative · Window
  3. Jul 2027 Earliest Statnett licence application for Skagerrak 1 and 2 (second half of 2027) [1] Tentative · Outside event
  4. Sep 2029 Next regular Storting election (by the end of September) [15] Declared · Outside event

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · NORWAY · strature.net

The other side

Keeping water at home in a dry year would cushion prices for Norwegian households and industry in the NO2 zone [9]. If the cables are renewed instead, the link to Denmark stays at 1,700 MW [1] and imports in cold, dry weeks stay possible, which the committee majority cites as a reason to keep exchange open [4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

15 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Utsetter frist for kabel-utredning. Sp mener Ap ikke følger opp sitt eget partiprogram. Altinget · 16 Jan 2026 · News · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  2. Skagerrak 1 og 2 (project page). Statnett · undated · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  3. Skade på strømkabel til Danmark. Statnett · 8 Jun 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  4. Innst. 374 S (2025-2026), committee remarks on Dokument 8:235 S. Stortinget, energi- og miljøkomiteen · 26 May 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  5. Stortinget, meeting of 9 June 2026, item 4. Stortinget · 9 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  6. Innst. 193 L (2023-2024), on Prop. 33 L (2023-2024). Stortinget, energi- og miljøkomiteen · 13 Feb 2024 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  7. Magasinstatistikk, latest week (week 43, 2026-10-25; published 2026-10-28; weekly). NVE · 28 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  8. Magasinstatistikk, minimum, maximum and median by week. NVE · read 2026-10-28 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 28 Oct 2026
  9. Kraftsituasjonen, veke 34 2026 (median reference period 2006-2025). NVE · 2026-08 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  10. Stortingsvalget 2025, national result (seats per party). Valgdirektoratet (valgresultat.no) · 17 Sep 2025 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  11. EU advarer Norge mot kutt i krafteksporten. Teknisk Ukeblad · 31 Aug 2022 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  12. Referat 9 June 2026, voting chapter, sak nr. 4 (Innst. 374 S). Stortinget · 9 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  13. Danmarkskabelen SK2 er reparert og satt i drift. Statnett · 28 Sep 2026 · Company · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  14. Kongeriket Noregs grunnlov, § 54. Lovdata · read 2026-10-26 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 26 Oct 2026
  15. Norges behov for utenlandskabler og utbygging av kraftnettet (utredningsnotat 2021251). Stortingets utredningsseksjon · 24 Jan 2022 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 26 Oct 2026

Reviewed 28 Oct 2026 · version 2 · last change: reviewed · All risks