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World risk · Finance and markets

Iraq has no 2027 budget law by the end of March 2027

The test By 31 Mar 2027, Iraq's parliament has not passed a federal budget law for 2027, on the parliament's or the government's own record.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Last Article IV board consultation 24 Jun 2025 [5]
  2. Draft 217.2tn dinars spending, 174.2tn revenue; cabinet approval still pending [1]
  3. Barzani: no final agreement; KRG to market 400,000 b/d via SOMO [1]
  4. Exports 3.36 mb/d (Feb), 131,000 b/d (Apr), about 3.4 mb/d (Oct); revenue 45.3tn vs spending 78.9tn to end-Aug [1]
  5. CBI devalued the dinar from 7 Oct 2026: 1,500 IQD/US$ from the Finance Ministry, 1,510 to banks, 1,520 cash to the public, about 15% [4]
  6. Finance Committee member Abbas Hayal: 50tn deficit, US$58 oil, 4 mb/d, 1,500 IQD/US$ [2]
Show 2 earlier changes
  1. Economy council approved the draft in September; due to parliament by 15 Oct under the Finance Administration Law [2]
  2. Domestic debt 90.5tn to 109.5tn dinars (end-2025 to end-Jul 2026) [3]

Why it matters

Iraq's draft 2027 budget of about 217 trillion dinars assumes oil at US$58 and exports of 4 mb/d. The war cut exports from 3.36 mb/d in February to 131,000 b/d in April, reserves fell to US$80.6bn and Baghdad has asked the IMF for money. The Kurdistan Region says there is no final deal, and the cabinet had yet to approve the draft on 26 Oct.

Why Likelihood 5 Not-by-a-date event, E no. Pushes: cabinet approval pending; no deal with Erbil; disproved oil assumption. Brakes: payroll and IMF pressure; five months left. An open contest, 5.

Where it sits

IRAQSYRIAKUWAIT11. Iraq has no 2027 budget law by the end of March 2027: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 No Iraqi 2027 budgetby MarchElevated impact · possibleNO IRAQI 2027 BUDGET BY MARCH0300 kmat 33°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
IRAQSYRIAKUWAIT11. Iraq has no 2027 budget law by the end of March 2027: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 No Iraqi2027 budgetby MarchNO IRAQI 2027 BUDGET BY MARCH0300 kmat 33°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

By 31 Mar 2027, Iraq's parliament has not passed a federal budget law for 2027, on the parliament's or the government's own record.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Public financesWithout a law, spending runs on monthly limits and new investment waits [1].
  3. KurdistanTransfers to the Kurdistan Region stay in dispute [1].

Goods 1

Sectors 2

  • Public finance
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Iraq.

Sectors
Public finance, Energy and pipelines
Goods
Crude oil

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Passed

    The cabinet approves, a deal with Erbil follows and parliament passes the law early in 2027.

  2. S2

    Late

    Disputes over Kurdistan's share and the deficit carry the vote past March.

  3. S3

    Rewritten

    The IMF or falling oil forces a smaller budget.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1cabinet approval before December 2026
S2no first reading by February 2027
S3a revised draft with lower spending

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 31 Mar 2027 Judgement date of this risk [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · IRAQ · strature.net

The other side

The government needs a law to pay 500,000 contract workers it promised to make permanent and to support an IMF request [1]; that pressure could speed the vote.

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Iraq's biggest ever budget for 2027 built for boom times amid economic bust. The National · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Iraq's 2027 budget draft sets 217T dinar spending. Shafaq News · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Iraq's debt and borrowing continues to grow as Iran conflict persists. Musings on Iraq · 30 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. CBI Confirms Devaluation of Iraqi Dinar. Iraq Business News · 8 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Iraq and the IMF (country page). International Monetary Fund · 2026-11 · International body · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks