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World risk · Finance and markets

The IMF approves a loan programme for Iraq

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the IMF Executive Board approves a financing arrangement for Iraq.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth3
Duration7
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. IMF Iraq page: 2026 projected real GDP -6.8 (older, undated) [3]
  2. Last Article IV board consultation 24 Jun 2025 [3]
  3. Iraq formally requested an IMF programme, first since the 2016 SBA (The National; Reuters) [1]
  4. Current account -10.8% of GDP (IMF, as reported) [1]
  5. Zaidi: 500,000 workers made permanent, 120,000 new posts [1]
  6. Georgieva, Bangkok, 17 Oct: money and policy support for Iraq [6]
Show 4 earlier changes
  1. IMF Oct 2026 WEO: Iraq GDP -16% in 2026, +19% in 2027 [7]
  2. Dinar devalued 7 Oct 2026 [4]
  3. Draft 2027 budget assumes 1,500 IQD/US$ [5]
  4. Reserves US$97.4bn (end-2025) to US$80.63bn (end-Jul 2026); salaries and welfare about US$5.67bn a month [2]

Why it matters

Baghdad has formally asked the IMF for a financing programme, its first since 2016, and the Fund's Managing Director said on 17 Oct, "We will get to Iraq both money and policy support". The IMF's October outlook sees Iraq's economy shrinking 16% in 2026. A programme would bring money and conditions on payroll, the dinar and subsidies, at a time when the government plans to hire more.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: request; Fund commitment; falling reserves. Brakes: hiring plans; recovering exports; more work to do.

Where it sits

IRAQSYRIAKUWAIT11. The IMF approves a loan programme for Iraq: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 IMF loan programmefor IraqElevated impact · possibleIMF LOAN PROGRAMME FOR IRAQ0300 kmat 33°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
IRAQSYRIAKUWAIT11. The IMF approves a loan programme for Iraq: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 IMF loanprogrammefor IraqIMF LOAN PROGRAMME FOR IRAQ0300 kmat 33°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the IMF Executive Board approves a financing arrangement for Iraq.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Finance and marketsIMF money would ease the hit to reserves and the payroll [1][2].
  3. Public financesConditions would likely cover the wage bill, energy subsidies and the exchange rate.
  4. PoliticsCuts to hiring or subsidies would test the government.

Sectors 2

  • Banks and insurers
  • Public finance

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Iraq.

Sectors
Banks and insurers, Public finance

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Programme

    A staff-level agreement in early 2027 and board approval by mid-2027.

  2. S2

    Emergency only

    A smaller emergency loan with few conditions.

  3. S3

    No deal

    Oil income recovers and Baghdad drops the request.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1an IMF staff-level agreement announced
S2a request for rapid financing
S3exports above 3.5 mb/d for three months

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 31 Mar 2027 Judgement date for Iraq's 2027 budget law [1] Declared · Outside event

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · IRAQ · strature.net

The other side

Oil exports recovered to about 3.4 mb/d in October [1]; if prices stay high, Baghdad may prefer not to accept conditions on its payroll.

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Iraq's biggest ever budget for 2027 built for boom times amid economic bust. The National · 26 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Iraq's debt and borrowing continues to grow as Iran conflict persists. Musings on Iraq · 30 Sep 2026 · Commentary · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Iraq and the IMF (country page). International Monetary Fund · 2026-11 · International body · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. 2026 in Iraq. Wikipedia · 2026-10 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Iraq's 2027 budget draft sets 217T dinar spending. Shafaq News · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. IMF to 'firmly' support Iraq, more work needed on Lebanon program, Georgieva says (Reuters). Devdiscourse · 17 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  7. World Economic Outlook (October 2026): real GDP growth, Iraq (DataMapper). International Monetary Fund · 13 Oct 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks