Gas to Transnistria stops for a week or more
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, gas deliveries to the Transnistrian region stop for 7 days in a row or more, as stated by the Moldovan government or two news sources.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Energy ministry asked ANRE to extend to 30 Apr 2027; MET supplies since Feb 2025; region uses about 1 bcm a year; reserve target raised from 53.7 to 136 mcm by 1 Nov 2026; gas paid by the region's partners [2]
Why it matters
Moldova's breakaway Transnistrian region has lived on a stop-gap gas supply since Gazprom halted deliveries on 1 Jan 2025. The regulator has renewed Moldovagaz's role as the region's supplier in short steps, now to 31 Dec 2026, and the energy ministry has asked for a further extension to 30 Apr 2027. Moldova's deputy prime minister for reintegration has called the model unsustainable.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: two lapse dates in the window; payment via outside channels exposed to sanctions; the deputy PM's warning. Brakes: three renewals since the cut; reserve target raised.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case a 7-day stop.
The other facts on file (5)
- Gazprom announced on 28 Dec 2024 a stop of gas from 1 Jan 2025, citing debt; Moldova declared a 60-day emergency from 16 Dec 2024; about 2 bcm a year had gone to Transnistria since 2022 [3] (28 Dec 2024)
- ANRE extended Moldovagaz's designation from 1 Apr to 30 Jun 2026 at the energy ministry's request [6] (4 Mar 2026)
- ANRE extended Moldovagaz's designation as the region's supplier, due to expire 30 Jun, until 31 Dec 2026 [1] (9 Jun 2026)
- ANRE extension to 31 Dec 2026 at the energy ministry's request, for continuity of supply [5] (9 Jun 2026)
- Deputy PM Chiveri: model unsustainable, crises could recur every two or three weeks; payment agent could change depending on EU sanctions; consumers lost gas, power, heat and hot water in January 2025 [4] (17 Dec 2025)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Gas to Transnistria stops for a week or moreImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Moldova
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 31 Oct 2027, gas deliveries to the Transnistrian region stop for 7 days in a row or more, as stated by the Moldovan government or two news sources.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Heat and powerA stop cuts gas, power, heat and hot water in the region, as in January 2025 [4].
- Moldova's gridPower from the region's plant to the right bank could be at risk (Strature's view; no figure sourced).
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Roll-over
ANRE extends the designation and payments continue.
- S2
Payment break
A sanctions step stops the payment agent and gas halts for weeks.
- S3
Mid-winter gap
The designation lapses on 31 Dec with no successor.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | An ANRE decision before 31 Dec 2026 |
| S2 | An EU listing touching the intermediaries |
| S3 | No ANRE decision by mid-December 2026 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 31 Dec 2026 Moldovagaz's designation as the region's supplier lapses unless extended [1] Declared · Outside event
- 30 Apr 2027 End of the extension requested by the energy ministry [2] Tentative · Outside event
- 31 Oct 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
The EU offered a €30 million grant and a €60 million aid package that Tiraspol rejected; Chiveri said in December 2025 that it remains available, a route to a supply model less exposed to outside payers [4].
Connected in Strature
- Russia
- Romania
- Romania limits power to consumers in a supply crisis Drives: A gas stop to the region's plant tightens the power balance on both banks; Moldova is named on that card.
- Russia and Ukraine sign a general ceasefire on the current front line Shares a channel: Transit through Ukraine ended with the war; a settlement could reopen it.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Moldovagaz to supply natural gas to Transnistrian region by late 2026. Moldpres · 9 Jun 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Moldova to extend Gazprom subsidiary's status as gas supplier to Transnistria to May 2027. Interfax-Ukraine · 23 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Russia officially halts gas supplies to Moldova's Transnistria. Kyiv Independent · 28 Dec 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Moldovan deputy PM says current energy crises in Transnistrian region could recur, as gas delivery model not sustainable. Moldpres · 17 Dec 2025 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Moldovagaz to Supply Gas to Transnistria Through End of 2026. Logos Press · 9 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Moldovagaz to stay responsible for supplying natural gas to Transnistrian region in continuation. Moldpres · 4 Mar 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks