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World risk · Geopolitics and conflict

Iranian fire damages a port, plant or fuel site in Bahrain or Oman again

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, an Iranian missile or drone (not interception debris) hits a port, refinery, fuel store, smelter, desalination plant or industrial area in Bahrain or Oman and causes damage, as either government or two sources report.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
5Elevated steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth3
Duration4
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. WSJ report, relayed by The National: Washington warned Gulf states to prepare for a possible renewed US campaign against Iran after the 3 Nov midterms; Qatari mediators gave Iran a new draft deal [5]

Why it matters

In March 2026 Bahrain said an Iranian missile set fire to its Sitra refinery, and drones hit Oman's ports at Duqm and Salalah. A ceasefire has held since, but the Wall Street Journal reported in late October that Washington told Gulf states to prepare for a possible renewed campaign against Iran (The National, 28 Oct 2026).

Why Likelihood 5 Brakes: the ceasefire; the Qatari draft deal; Oman's mediation.

Why Impact 5 Threshold case one damaging hit.

The other facts on file (6)
  • Bahrain's government said an Iranian missile strike caused a contained fire at a Sitra refinery unit [1] (5 Mar 2026)
  • Force majeure declared after a further drone strike on the 405,000 b/d Sitra refinery, described by Argus as Iranian [2] (9 Mar 2026)
  • Drones hit a fuel tank at Duqm port on 3 Mar; Oman condemned the attack without naming the attacker [3] (3 Mar 2026)
  • Drone strikes reportedly linked to Iran hit a petroleum facility near Salalah [4] (12 Mar 2026)
  • Robin Mills of AGSI wrote that Iranian attacks hit Sohar, Duqm and Salalah [7] (30 Jul 2026)
  • Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026); a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, resolves 20 Nov 2026 [6] (21 Aug 2026)

Where it sits

UAEQATAR11. Iranian fire damages a port, plant or fuel site in Bahrain or Oman again: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Iranian fire damagesa port, plant or fuel sitein Bahrain or Oman againElevated impact · possibleIRAN HITS BAHRAIN OR OMAN AGAIN0200 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
UAEQATAR11. Iranian fire damages a port, plant or fuel site in Bahrain or Oman again: Elevated impact · possible (placed at the country)1 Iran hits Bahrainor Oman againIRAN HITS BAHRAIN OR OMAN AGAIN0200 kmat 26°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

The strait is the interchange. Each line is a good the shock travels by; each stop is a country on it. A figure at a stop is that country's share of its imports of that good that pass through Hormuz. The producers feed it first; their figure is the share of their exports that passes the strait. Dashed lines are the pipelines round it. Every figure is listed below with its source. Not to scale.

GULF PRODUCERS: SHARE OF EXPORTS THROUGHTHE STRAITIran100.0% FH-1374Kuwait100.0% FH-1214Qatar (LNG)93.0% FH-1303Iraq89.6% FH-1333Saudi Arabia82.0% FH-1527United Arab Emirates63.0% FH-1253Vietnam80.0% T2A-0046South Korea68.0% FH-0750Japan67.7% CL-0003Taiwan62.0% T2A-0004Bangladesh50.0% T2M-0109China46.6% CL-0001CRUDE OILPakistan90.0% T2A-0077India55.1% FH-0786Taiwan34.0% T2A-0013China33.0% FH-0098South Korea20.0% FH-0127European Union8.08% FH-0972LNGStrait of HormuzUAE Habshan-Fujairah crude line · 1.8 mb/d pipelines_v1:are-adcopIraq-Türkiye Kirkuk-Ceyhan crude line · 1.52 mb/d pipelines_v1:irq-tur-kirkuk-ceyhanIran line to the Gulf of Oman coast (schematic)Saudi East-West crude line · 7.0 mb/d pipelines_v1:sau-east-westGULF PRODUCERS: SHARE OF EXPORTS THROUGHTHE STRAITIran100.0% FH-1374Kuwait100.0% FH-1214Qatar (LNG)93.0% FH-1303Iraq89.6% FH-1333Saudi Arabia82.0% FH-1527United Arab Emirates63.0% FH-1253Strait of HormuzUAE Habshan-Fujairah crude line· 1.8 mb/dpipelines_v1:are-adcopIraq-Türkiye Kirkuk-Ceyhancrude line · 1.52 mb/dpipelines_v1:irq-tur-kirkuk-ceyhanIran line to the Gulf of Omancoast (schematic)Saudi East-West crude line ·7.0 mb/dpipelines_v1:sau-east-westCRUDE OILVietnam80.0% T2A-0046South Korea68.0% FH-0750Japan67.7% CL-0003Taiwan62.0% T2A-0004Bangladesh50.0% T2M-0109China46.6% CL-0001LNGPakistan90.0% T2A-0077India55.1% FH-0786Taiwan34.0% T2A-0013China33.0% FH-0098South Korea20.0% FH-0127European Union8.08% FH-0972

Every figure on the diagram, with its source

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, an Iranian missile or drone (not interception debris) hits a port, refinery, fuel store, smelter, desalination plant or industrial area in Bahrain or Oman and causes damage, as either government or two sources report.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Bahrain's fuel exportsA hit on Sitra brought force majeure in March 2026 [2].
  3. Oman's bypassOman's ports lie outside the Strait of Hormuz [7]; strikes on them would close that outlet.

Sectors 2

  • Energy and pipelines
  • Ports and logistics

Countries 4

Who is exposed

Share of crude oil imports through Hormuz

No figure on file: United States.

Sectors
Energy and pipelines, Ports and logistics
Goods
Refined fuels, Crude oil
Straits
Strait of Hormuz

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Deal holds

    No strike follows.

  2. S2

    War, targets elsewhere

    Iranian fire falls mainly on other states.

  3. S3

    Hit again

    Salvoes reach Sitra or Oman's ports.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1Iran's reply to the Qatari draft deal
S2F-0074 resolves on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
S3Bahrain or Oman reports an interception

No probability is given for the three paths.

Forecasts

Strature forecast linked to this risk

61%F-0074 · A renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, 22 Aug-20 Nov 2026 (operative)
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
050100%

Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)

A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.

The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [6] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · WORLD · strature.net

The other side

Oman's mediator role and ports outside the strait [7] make it the Gulf's safest outlet if the region stays calm (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

7 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. Bahrain says Iran missile sparked fire at main oil refinery, contained. Khaleej Times (AFP) · 5 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Bahrain's Bapco issues force majeure after refinery hit. Argus · 9 Mar 2026 · Industry · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Multiple drones strike fuel tank at Duqm port in Oman. Gulf Times (Oman News Agency) · 3 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Drone strikes hit Oman energy facility, vessels evacuate Mina Al Fahal terminal. investingLive · 12 Mar 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Oil prices up due to Houthi strikes and US threat to renew Iran war. The National · 28 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  6. S-001: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike (F-0074). Strature forecast register · 21 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  7. Oman in the War. Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington · 30 Jul 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks