Oman's main crude export terminal stops loading for a week
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, crude loadings at the Mina al-Fahal terminal near Muscat stop for 7 days in a row, as Oman's government or two sources report.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Oman's energy exports do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz; S&P raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.5% from 1.6% [4]
Why it matters
Oman ships its crude from Mina al-Fahal near Muscat, and its energy exports do not rely on the Strait of Hormuz. Drones and a drone boat hit Duqm port and a tanker off Muscat in March 2026, and loading was suspended briefly after an explosion on 5 Jun. No halt is shown to have lasted a week.
Why Likelihood 4 The 12 Mar evacuation rests on one line of reporting and is not counted. Brakes: the June halt ended the same day; Oman's mediator role.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: 7 days without loadings.
The other facts on file (5)
- investingLive (shipping sources) and Devdiscourse (relaying Bloomberg; unverified by Reuters) reported Oman moved all vessels from Mina al-Fahal as a precaution on 12 Mar 2026 [1] (12 Mar 2026)
- Three sources told Reuters loading was suspended on 5 Jun 2026 after an explosion near the berths; the operator said operations were normal [2] (5 Jun 2026)
- Omani media said normal operations had resumed the same day [7] (5 Jun 2026)
- Oman exports 800,000-900,000 barrels a day from the terminal [2] (5 Jun 2026)
- Drones struck a fuel tank at Duqm on 3 Mar 2026; a tanker 52 nautical miles off Muscat was hit on 2 Mar, killing one crew member [3] (3 Mar 2026)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, crude loadings at the Mina al-Fahal terminal near Muscat stop for 7 days in a row, as Oman's government or two sources report.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Crude buyersA week's halt removes about 6 million barrels from a route outside Hormuz (Strature's estimate from [2]).
- Gulf bypassOman's exports are one of the outlets that avoid the strait; a halt narrows the options in a Gulf war [4].
- Oman's budgetOil revenue would fall at once (Strature's view).
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Open door
No renewed war and loadings run normally.
- S2
Precautionary pauses
Short pauses follow attacks in the region, as reported in March and June.
- S3
Week-long halt
Damage to berths or storage stops loadings for a week or more.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) |
| S2 | An evacuation notice through port agents |
| S3 | An operator's force majeure notice |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Forecasts
Strature forecast linked to this risk
Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) · resolves by 20 Nov 2026
Where the card uses it F-0074 resolves no on 20 Nov 2026. Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026)
A forecast is a probability on a dated question. The Likelihood score above is a separate judgement and is never turned into a percentage.
The forecast register lists every forecast and how it is scored.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 20 Nov 2026 F-0074 resolves (renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran). Strature forecast F-0074: 61% (21 Aug 2026) [5] Declared · Strature date
- 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [5] Declared · Strature date
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The other side
S&P sees Oman's open routes lifting its 2026 growth (The National, 26 Sep 2026) [4]. Oman's role as a mediator may also keep its terminal out of the line of fire (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike
- Oman
- China
- India
- The Strait of Hormuz shuts again Shares a channel: Oman's terminal is one of the main bypasses for that card's closure.
- Another Greek-owned or Greek-flagged ship is hit or seized near Hormuz Shares a channel: Attacks on tankers off Oman are the same channel.
- Iranian fire damages a port, plant or fuel site in Bahrain or Oman again Driven by: Iranian fire on an Omani port or fuel site is the main way loading could stop for a week.
Sources
6 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Drone strikes hit Oman energy facility; vessels evacuate Mina al Fahal terminal. investingLive · 12 Mar 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Oman suspends oil loading at Mina al Fahal terminal following explosion, sources say. Arab News (Reuters) · 5 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Multiple drones strike fuel tank at Duqm port in Oman. Gulf Times (Oman News Agency) · 3 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Oman's economy to grow 3.5% in 2026 on favourable trade logistics, S&P says. The National · 26 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- S-001: Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and a renewed strike (forecast F-0074). Strature · 21 Aug 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Oman's Mina al-Fahal oil terminal resumes operations after halt due to blast. WION · 5 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks