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World risk · Supply chains and chokepoints

Somali pirates hijack three or more merchant ships

The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Somali pirates hijack three or more merchant vessels (not dhows or fishing boats), as reported by EUNAVFOR ATALANTA or the IMB.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
6Elevated steady this month
Impact
4Elevated steady this month
Breadth5
Depth2
Duration5
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Merchant hijacks on 22 Apr (tanker), 27 Apr (cargo ship) and 22 Aug 2026 (tanker) [3]
  2. ATALANTA: GOLDEN ARSENAL freed 3 Jul; four open cases off northern Somalia on 29 Jul (three tankers, one merchant vessel); MV GLAMOR hijacked 10 Sep in the Gulf of Aden; four cases closed 16 Oct [1]
  3. Piracy at a 10-year high in 2026; Somalia approved an anti-piracy bill in September; combined anti-piracy task force agreed in August; Houthi-al-Shabaab exchanges reported [2]
  4. Houthis attacked more than 100 commercial ships between Nov 2023 and mid-2025 [4]

Why it matters

Piracy off Somalia reached a 10-year high in 2026. The EU naval force ATALANTA reported the hijack of a merchant vessel in the Gulf of Aden on 10 Sep 2026 and four open piracy cases off northern Somalia in July; three more merchant hijacks in April and August are listed by a low-confidence source. Somalia passed an anti-piracy bill in September.

Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: piracy at a 10-year high in 2026; at least four merchant hijacks found in 2026; reported Houthi support. Brakes: naval patrols; Somalia's anti-piracy law and a regional task force; monsoon seasons. Leaning towards it, short of a base case.

Why Impact 4 Threshold case three hijacked merchant ships.

Where it sits

Exhibit R-1 · Map

Where this risk sits

Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.

Somali pirates hijack three or more merchant ships. Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated.
  • Low 1–3
  • Elevated 4–6
  • High 7–8
  • Severe 9–10
  • Bigger circle: higher Impact
  • Solid ring: under way
  • Red ring: highest Impact on this map
  • Where it starts
  • Who it reaches

The risk on this map

  1. Somali pirates hijack three or more merchant shipsImpact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated. · Somalia
SourceStrature world-risk cards. Cards reviewed 1 Nov 2026. Map: Natural Earth 1:110m, Equal Earth projection. Country names imply no position on sovereignty.
Exhibit R-1 · SOMALIA · strature.net

How it spreads

If

Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Somali pirates hijack three or more merchant vessels (not dhows or fishing boats), as reported by EUNAVFOR ATALANTA or the IMB.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Shipping costsAdds war-risk and security cost on the Gulf of Aden route, which ships already avoid [4][5].
  3. CrewsSeafarers held for weeks or months [1].
  4. Regional tradeEthiopia's imports reach Djibouti through these waters (Strature's view) [5].

Sectors 2

  • Ports and logistics
  • Banks and insurers

Straits 1

Countries 2

Who is exposed

Countries
Somalia, Yemen
Sectors
Ports and logistics, Banks and insurers
Straits
Bab el-Mandeb

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Patrols hold

    Naval patrols and the new Somali law cut attacks.

  2. S2

    Steady piracy

    Hijacks continue at the 2026 rate.

  3. S3

    Surge

    Houthi and al-Shabaab support widens pirates' reach.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1ATALANTA reports no new hijack through the 2027 inter-monsoon seasons
S2A new hijack reported by ATALANTA
S3A hijack far offshore, east of Mukalla or beyond

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 1 Nov 2027 End of the scored window (no date found for the anti-piracy law taking effect) [2] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SOMALIA · strature.net

The other side

Earlier naval campaigns suppressed Somali piracy for years; the new task force and Somali law [2] could repeat that (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. News: Operation ATALANTA updates of 3 Jul, 29 Jul, 11 Sep and 16 Oct 2026. EUNAVFOR ATALANTA · 16 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  2. African Red Sea states' risks grow as Houthi rebels expand reach. Asia Times · 1 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  3. 2026 in Somalia. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  4. Iran-backed Houthis seize strategic Mayun Island: Can they hold it?. Al Jazeera · 12 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
  5. Ethiopia country reading, theme gulf-war-hormuz. Strature library · 29 Oct 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026

Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks