Election fighting returns to Mogadishu
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, fighting between federal government forces and opposition-aligned forces kills 10 or more people in Mogadishu within any seven days, as reported by a UN agency, the government or two independent news agencies.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Election commission sets parliamentary vote 15 Apr 2027 and presidential vote 15 May 2027; opposition boycotted the amendment and rejects it; al-Shabaab controls much of the country [1]
Why it matters
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's original term ended on 15 May 2026; he says a constitutional amendment gives him a year more, and the opposition rejects it. Government and opposition forces fought in Mogadishu on 3-5 June 2026, killing at least 13. The election commission has set a parliamentary vote for 15 Apr 2027 and a presidential vote for 15 May 2027, inside this window.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: disputed term; vote dates set inside the window; Puntland and Jubaland out of the federal system; talks collapsed 15 May; BISI's short-term outlook of more clashes. Brakes: no fighting in Mogadishu found since June; no named source forecasts a second round, so not an open contest.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case one week with 10 deaths.
The other facts on file (3)
- Clashes 3-5 Jun 2026 between government forces and opposition-affiliated militias; UNHCR: at least 13 killed, 189 wounded; BISI expects more clashes short term [2] (22 Jun 2026)
- Talks collapsed 15 May; Puntland and Jubaland withdrew from the federal system; Sharif warned of bullets without a deal; direct business cost about US$3.8m (estimate) [3] (5 Jun 2026)
- Puntland forces seized a federal camp in Galkayo on 5 Aug 2026 [4] (5 Aug 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Election fighting returns to MogadishuImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Somalia
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, fighting between federal government forces and opposition-aligned forces kills 10 or more people in Mogadishu within any seven days, as reported by a UN agency, the government or two independent news agencies.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
Sectors 1
- Agriculture and food
Countries 1
- Somalia primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Somalia
- Sectors
- Banks and insurers, Agriculture and food
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Deal on the rules
Government and opposition agree an electoral framework.
- S2
Tense vote
Elections go ahead without a deal, with protests but no major fighting.
- S3
Second round of fighting
Clashes return around a protest or the vote.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A signed agreement before the 15 Apr 2027 vote |
| S2 | Opposition boycott of the April vote |
| S3 | The opposition plans armed guards at a protest, as in June |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- 15 Apr 2027 Parliamentary elections [1] Declared · Outside event
- 15 May 2027 Presidential election [1] Declared · Outside event
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The other side
A negotiated electoral framework would give Somalia its first direct vote in decades and could restore donor trust (Strature's view; BISI judged in June 2026 that adopting one person, one vote within a year is highly unlikely [2]).
Connected in Strature
- Somali pirates hijack three or more merchant ships Shares a channel: State weakness on land and at sea.
- Another Arab or African state cuts diplomatic ties with the UAE Shares a channel: Somalia's break with the UAE, which the federal states rejected.
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Somalia announces parliamentary and presidential elections for 2027. Africanews · 15 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Political Crisis and Violent Protests in Somalia. Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute · 22 Jun 2026 · Think tank · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Why Mogadishu clashes are deepening Somalia's political crisis again. Al Jazeera · 5 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- 2026 in Somalia. Wikipedia · 1 Nov 2026 · Commentary · confidence low · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks