Haiti holds no first round of its general elections by 1 Nov 2027
The test Haiti holds no first round of its presidential and legislative elections between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ Up since 6 Oct 2026: elections postponed with no new date
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- Council of Ministers amended the 2 Jun 2026 electoral decree on 5 Oct 2026; campaign suspended; registration extended to 31 Oct; no general vote since 2016; Transitional Presidential Council mandate ended February 2026; PM Fils-Aimé governs largely by decree; gangs cut voting corridors; about 1.5 million displaced [1]
- Late-July calendar set first round 13 Dec 2026 and second round 21 Feb 2027; communiqué removed all dates; Gang Suppression Force still forming, planned 5,500; IOM: nearly 1.5 million displaced [2]
Why it matters
Haiti has held no general vote since 2016. On 6 Oct 2026 its electoral council postponed the first round set for 13 Dec 2026 and removed every date from its calendar. With gangs holding large parts of the capital and about 1.5 million people displaced, a first round within a year is in doubt.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: no date; gangs cut voting corridors; force still forming. Brakes: registration continued; promised new calendar.
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Haiti holds no first round of its general elections by 1 Nov 2027Impact 4 of 10, Elevated. Likelihood 6 of 10, Elevated. · Haiti
How it spreads
Haiti holds no first round of its presidential and legislative elections between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027.
Not under wayChannels 3 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- Legitimacy and aidNo nationally elected official would stay in office; donors keep dealing with an appointed government.
- MigrationDisplacement feeds departures to the Dominican Republic.
Sectors 2
- Ports and logistics
- Agriculture and food
Countries 4
- Haiti primary
- Dominican Republic
- United States
- Canada
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Haiti, Dominican Republic, United States, Canada
- Sectors
- Ports and logistics, Agriculture and food
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Vote in 2027
The council publishes a calendar and a first round is held in 2027.
- S2
Rolling delay
Dates are set and missed again.
- S3
Security first
The vote waits on the Gang Suppression Force reaching strength.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | A new electoral calendar published |
| S2 | The candidate list after the 31 Oct 2026 registration deadline |
| S3 | Deployment reaching its planned 5,500 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
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The other side
A credible calendar would give Haiti its first elected officials since 2016 [1] and a counterpart for donors and neighbours (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- United States
- Canada
- The Dominican Republic shuts its land border with Haiti to trade for a week or more Drives: Haiti's vacuum and displacement are the pressure behind Dominican border measures.
Sources
2 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Haiti postpones elections as political instability continues. Anadolu Agency · 7 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Le conseil électoral haïtien reporte les élections (AFP). DH.be · 6 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks