The Philippine Senate convicts Vice President Sara Duterte
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Philippine Senate, sitting as an impeachment court, votes to convict Vice President Sara Duterte on at least one article of impeachment, as shown in the Senate record.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Likelihood ↑ since 23 Sep 2026: conviction bar lowered to two-thirds of senators present
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- A conviction could bar her from running for president in 2028 [6]
- Defence counsel Sheila Sison objected to the withdrawal; trial days are set from 9 to 23 Nov 2026 [5]
- The court allowed the prosecution to withdraw Articles 1, 3 and 4, including the alleged threats against the President; Article 2, alleging undeclared assets, remains [4]
- She denies the allegations; her lawyers say there was no irregularity in how funds were spent [1]
- The court ruled 13 to 1, six senators aligned with her not voting, that two-thirds counts only senators present; with 20 voting, 14 convict; a Supreme Court challenge was expected; the trial could run to December [1]
Why it matters
The House impeached Vice President Sara Duterte on 11 May 2026. Since 13 Oct 2026 one article remains before the Senate court, an allegation of unexplained wealth. The articles are allegations, no finding has been made, and she denies them.
Why Likelihood 5 Pushes: 13 votes for the 23 Sep procedural ruling, one short of 14 if 20 vote; the case narrowed on 13 Oct to speed the trial. Brakes: a procedural vote is not a count on the verdict; six senators aligned with her; a possible Supreme Court challenge; her denial. An open contest; a 6 or 7 needs a committed count.
Why Impact 4 Threshold case conviction on one article.
The other facts on file (2)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, the Philippine Senate, sitting as an impeachment court, votes to convict Vice President Sara Duterte on at least one article of impeachment, as shown in the Senate record.
Not under wayChannels 4 on the card
- CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
- The 2028 raceShe is an early favourite for 2028 [1]; a conviction could bar her from running [6].
- The vice presidencyThe President would nominate a replacement from Congress, confirmed by both chambers [3].
- Policy lineA reshaped race would change the line after the Marcos term, including on the South China Sea (Strature's view).
Sectors 1
- Banks and insurers
Countries 1
- Philippines primary
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Conviction
At least two-thirds of senators present vote to convict on Article 2.
- S2
Acquittal
The vote falls short.
- S3
Stalled trial
The Supreme Court takes up a challenge and the trial pauses.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The court sets a date for the verdict |
| S2 | Senators who backed the 23 Sep ruling say they are undecided |
| S3 | A Supreme Court order |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Dec 2026 Trial could run to December [1] Tentative · Window
The other side
A verdict either way would end months of uncertainty and settle the field for the next presidential race (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Philippines
- A deadly or ship-disabling clash at Scarborough Shoal Shares a channel: The line after 2028 bears on the South China Sea (Strature's view).
Sources
7 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Sara Duterte's presidential bid in peril after key Senate vote. The Star (Malaysia) · 24 Sep 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- LIVE UPDATES: House votes on Sara Duterte impeachment. Philippine Daily Inquirer · 11 May 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Premature to talk about VP replacement - Palace. Philstar · 28 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Senate court allows prosecution to drop 3 impeachment articles vs Sara Duterte. GMA News · 13 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Sara Duterte impeachment trial Day 39: Prosecution drops 3 charges to focus on unexplained wealth. GMA News · 14 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Who replaces VP Sara? Lacson says Cayetano can't tie Marcos' hands. Philstar · 27 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Philippine Senate opens the impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. Associated Press (via KPRC Click2Houston) · 6 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks