Sign in Get in touch
World risk · Energy and resources

Nigeria's national power grid collapses nationwide

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027 Nigeria's system operator (NISO) records a total national grid collapse, with grid generation or distribution at or near zero nationwide.

Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.

Likelihood
7High steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth2
Duration1
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

Nigeria's national grid failed nationwide at least four times between March 2025 and January 2026, twice in one week in January 2026. Each collapse cuts power to every distribution company and pushes homes and industry onto diesel generators.

Why Likelihood 7 Not 8: no collapse after January 2026 was found in what was read. So 7.

The other facts on file (6)
  • 27 Jan 2026: generation fell to zero MW at about 11:00 (NISO data); eleven distribution companies had zero allocation [1] (27 Jan 2026)
  • 23 Jan 2026: generation at 0 MW at about 1 p.m. (NISO data), a total shutdown of the grid [3] (23 Jan 2026)
  • 27 Jan was the second system failure of 2026 within one week; NISO linked the earlier one to multiple 330 kV line trips; no official cause given for 27 Jan [1] (27 Jan 2026)
  • 29 Dec 2025: nationwide distribution at just 50 MW; nine distribution companies at zero [2] (29 Dec 2025)
  • The grid also collapsed in March and September 2025 [2] (29 Dec 2025)
  • Regulator data show several partial and total collapses in 2024 (as reported) [1] (27 Jan 2026)

Where it sits

NIGERIACAMEROONBENIN11. Nigeria's national power grid collapses nationwide: Low impact · likely (placed at the country)1 Nigeria's national powergrid collapses nationwideLow impact · likelyNIGERIA GRID COLLAPSE0500 kmat 9°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
NIGERIACAMEROONBENIN11. Nigeria's national power grid collapses nationwide: Low impact · likely (placed at the country)1 Nigeria gridcollapseNIGERIA GRID COLLAPSE0500 kmat 9°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027 Nigeria's system operator (NISO) records a total national grid collapse, with grid generation or distribution at or near zero nationwide.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. IndustryFactories and offices switch to diesel or gas generators at a higher cost.
  3. Households and servicesBlackouts hit water pumping, hospitals and telecoms.
  4. The power sectorEach collapse deepens the losses of distribution and generation companies.

Sectors 3

  • Electricity
  • Manufacturing
  • Households

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Nigeria.

Sectors
Electricity, Manufacturing, Households

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Fragile but standing

    Partial failures, no total collapse.

  2. S2

    One collapse

    A line trip or gas shortfall brings the grid down.

  3. S3

    Repeated collapses

    Several total failures, as in early 2026.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1No NISO report of zero generation through mid-2027
S2A NISO statement on a system disturbance
S3Two collapses within a month

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · NIGERIA · strature.net

The other side

Generator and solar suppliers gain from each collapse, and the run of failures adds pressure for grid investment and reform (Strature's view).

Connected in Strature

Sources

3 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. National grid collapses again, plunges Nigeria into nationwide blackout. Nairametrics · 27 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. National grid collapses again, power supply drops to near zero nationwide. Nairametrics · 29 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Nationwide blackout as national grid collapses for first time in 2026. Nairametrics · 23 Jan 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks