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World risk · Energy and resources

Guyana's Wales gas power plant still sends no power to the grid on 31 Mar 2027

The test By 31 Mar 2027, no turbine of the gas-fired plant at Wales has delivered power to Guyana's national grid, as stated by the government or the state power company.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

Why it matters

Guyana's gas-fired plant at Wales, first due at the end of 2024, is now set to deliver first power by the end of 2026. Until it runs, the grid leans on imported heavy fuel oil and rented powerships, whose fuel bill rose sharply in 2026. Unnamed experts quoted by one newspaper doubt the new date.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: a two-year slip already; unnamed expert doubt (thin, a push only). Brakes: the government's stated date and turbine schedule; the taskforce's 228 MW target for end-2026; the gas pipeline ready since end-2024. Drivers with blockers holding.

The other facts on file (4)
  • First power expected by end-2026, other gas turbines by Q1 2027, combined cycle by June 2027; original deadline December 2024; a US$9m control centre on track for August 2026 [1] (10 Jun 2026)
  • The taskforce head said the first 228 MW in simple cycle would come by the end of 2026; the gas pipeline from the offshore Liza field was finished at the end of 2024 [3] (19 Feb 2026)
  • Contract US$759m; a US$97m settlement with the contractor; unnamed experts call the end-2026 date unattainable [2] (28 May 2026)
  • The prime minister cited a 74.8% average rise in fuel import costs since the start of 2026; 2026 heavy-fuel import bill projected at about US$394m [2] (28 May 2026)

Where it sits

VENEZUELASURINAME11. Guyana's Wales gas power plant still sends no power to the grid on 31 Mar 2027: Low impact · possible (Wales, Guyana)1 Guyana gas plant slipsagainLow impact · possible · Wales, GuyanaGUYANA GAS PLANT SLIPS AGAIN0500 kmat 7°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
VENEZUELA11. Guyana's Wales gas power plant still sends no power to the grid on 31 Mar 2027: Low impact · possible (Wales, Guyana)1 Guyana gasplant slips againGUYANA GAS PLANT SLIPS AGAIN0500 kmat 7°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

By 31 Mar 2027, no turbine of the gas-fired plant at Wales has delivered power to Guyana's national grid, as stated by the government or the state power company.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Power costsEach month of delay keeps the grid on imported heavy fuel oil and two rented powerships [2].
  3. Public financesKaieteur News put the added heavy-fuel cost of the two-year delay at about US$619m [2].

Sectors 2

  • Power generation
  • Energy and pipelines

Countries 1

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Guyana.

Sectors
Power generation, Energy and pipelines

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    First power on time

    A first turbine feeds the grid by end-2026.

  2. S2

    Short slip

    First power comes in the first quarter of 2027.

  3. S3

    Longer slip

    No turbine runs by March 2027.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1A government statement on first power in December 2026
S2A revised date announced in late 2026
S3A new target set beyond the first quarter of 2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. Dec 2026 First turbine expected online [1] Tentative · Outside event
  2. Mar 2027 Other gas turbines expected to be fully commissioned [1] Tentative · Outside event
  3. 31 Mar 2027 Date on which the event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

  4. Jun 2027 Combined-cycle operation expected [1] Tentative · Outside event

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · GUYANA · strature.net

The other side

The gas pipeline has been ready since the end of 2024 [3], and once the plant runs it would cut a heavy-fuel bill projected at about US$394m for 2026 [2].

Connected in Strature

Sources

3 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. US$9M National Control Centre to manage power plant for August operation. Kaieteur News · 10 Jun 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Two-year delay of Wales gas project costing Guyana $884M more. Kaieteur News · 28 May 2026 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. NGL facility, 228 MW from Guyana's Gas-to-Energy plant this year – Brassington. OilNOW (republished by GAPP) · 19 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks