Costa Rica's president asks the electoral tribunal for a national referendum on a blocked bill
The test Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal formally calls a national referendum on a government bill, after a request by the president approved by the Legislative Assembly.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
Follow this riskSign in to follow; one weekly email if you ask for it.
Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
Why it matters
President Laura Fernández's bills on gold mining at Crucitas, private power generation, a four-day long work week and security are stalled by opposition motions in the Legislative Assembly. As president-elect she said she would not hesitate to call a referendum, though she prefers to negotiate; in July she said she was weighing one but had not chosen a bill. Her party holds enough seats to start the presidential route.
Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: bills blocked by opposition motions; 31 seats against 29 needed for the presidential route; a threat on the record. Brakes: one bill per vote; security matters excluded; cost and a stated preference to negotiate; undecided on 2 Jul 2026. Drivers plus a named actor's threat give 4.
Why Impact 3 Threshold case: a referendum is called.
The other facts on file (7)
- Fernández is weighing a referendum but has not chosen a bill; named electricity, 4x3 work week, security, Crucitas; law does not allow a package of bills [1] (2 Jul 2026)
- Routes: 5% of voters' signatures, 38 deputies, or a presidential request approved by 29 deputies; government holds 31 seats; one referendum a year [1] (2 Jul 2026)
- Crucitas bill tabled almost two years ago, blocked by Frente Amplio and PLN motions; would auction Crucitas gold to fund education, health and security [1] (2 Jul 2026)
- Electricity bill would widen private generation, with ICE as a competitor rather than planner [1] (2 Jul 2026)
- Executive referendum needs 29 votes; budget, tax, pensions, credit and security excluded; ruling party 31 seats, PLN 17, Frente Amplio 7 (provisional) [3] (Feb 2026)
- No referendum within six months before or after a presidential election; the only one so far was in 2007; elected deputy Acosta called it a lawful route, ex-legislator Guevara warned of a blocked plenary [4] (4 Feb 2026)
- President-elect Fernández said she would not hesitate to call a referendum on a strategic issue, preferring first to negotiate and to avoid the cost [2] (18 Feb 2026)
Where it sits
Where this risk sits
Size shows Impact. Colour shows the Likelihood band. The two scores are never combined.
- Low 1–3
- Elevated 4–6
- High 7–8
- Severe 9–10
- Bigger circle: higher Impact
- Solid ring: under way
- Red ring: highest Impact on this map
- Where it starts
- Who it reaches
The risk on this map
- Costa Rica's president asks the electoral tribunal for a national referendum on a blocked billImpact 3 of 10, Low. Likelihood 4 of 10, Elevated. · Costa Rica
How it spreads
Between 1 Nov 2026 and 1 Nov 2027, Costa Rica's Supreme Electoral Tribunal formally calls a national referendum on a government bill, after a request by the president approved by the Legislative Assembly.
Not under wayGoods 1
- Gold
Sectors 2
- Energy and pipelines
- Mining and metals
Countries 1
- Costa Rica primary
Who is exposed
- Countries
- Costa Rica
- Sectors
- Energy and pipelines, Mining and metals
- Goods
- Gold
Three scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Deal in the Assembly
The opposition lets the bills come to a vote; no referendum.
- S2
One-bill referendum
Fernández sends one bill to the TSE with 29 votes.
- S3
Citizens' route
Supporters gather signatures instead.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | The Crucitas or electricity bill passes a first debate |
| S2 | A presidential request filed with the Assembly |
| S3 | The TSE authorises a signature drive |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
A vote would settle long-blocked questions on power generation and mining, and could bring private investment in generation (Strature's view).
Sources
4 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- Laura Fernández ya valora un referéndum, pero no ha decidido el tema. La República · 2 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Laura Fernández: No me temblaría el pulso para convocar un referéndum. La República · 18 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Referéndum mancomunado: la herramienta que podrá usar Laura Fernández tras ganar mayoría en el Congreso. Delfino.cr · 2026-02 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
- Referéndum es un as bajo la manga para Laura Fernández. La República · 4 Feb 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 1 Nov 2026
Reviewed 1 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks