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World risk · Trade, tariffs and sanctions

Andorra's referendum rejects the EU association agreement

The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Andorra holds its consultative referendum on the EU association agreement and a majority of valid votes is cast against it, on the official result.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
3Low steady this month
Impact
5Elevated steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration8
Hard to substitute6
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Commission signed the association agreement with Andorra and San Marino on 19 Oct 2026; European Parliament consent required [1]

Why it matters

The EU signed its association agreement with Andorra and San Marino on 19 Oct 2026. Andorra's government will call a consultative referendum once the European Parliament approves it, and only a yes sends the agreement to the Consell General for ratification. A no would leave Andorra outside a deal whose negotiations ended in December 2023.

Why Likelihood 3 Pushes: a referendum is promised after European Parliament consent; opposition pressure. Brakes: European Parliament consent comes first and may take months; no date set; no poll read. Two steps (a vote inside the window and a no) keep it at 3.

The other facts on file (3)
  • Coreper approved the text unanimously on 15 Jul 2026; mixed agreement; referendum after European Parliament approval; Consell General ratification needs two thirds [4] (15 Jul 2026)
  • Espot: European Parliament may take 60 to 90 days; referendum date not set; a general election could fall between December and March [3] (16 Jul 2026)
  • Draft referendum regulation endorsed by the State Pact, based on Law 44/2022 [2] (19 Dec 2025)

Where it sits

11. Andorra's referendum rejects the EU association agreement: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Andorra's referendumrejects the EU associationagreementElevated impact · unlikelyANDORRA VOTES NO ON EU DEAL0200 kmat 43°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
11. Andorra's referendum rejects the EU association agreement: Elevated impact · unlikely (placed at the country)1 Andorra votesno on EU dealANDORRA VOTES NO ON EU DEAL0200 kmat 43°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

Between 3 Nov 2026 and 3 Nov 2027, Andorra holds its consultative referendum on the EU association agreement and a majority of valid votes is cast against it, on the official result.

Not under way

Channels 3 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Single market accessA no would stop ratification, so Andorran firms would not gain the homogeneous internal-market access the agreement provides [1][4].
  3. Banks and financeFinancial-services access is phased and depends on supervisory assessments; a no keeps Andorra's banks on today's terms [1].

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 4

Who is exposed

No figure on file: Andorra, San Marino, Spain, France.

Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Yes

    The European Parliament consents, the referendum is held and passes, and the Consell General ratifies.

  2. S2

    No

    The referendum is held and a majority votes against; ratification stops.

  3. S3

    Later

    The vote slips past Nov 2027, for instance to after the next general election.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1European Parliament consent vote in early 2027
S2a referendum date set by the government with a campaign led by the opposition
S3no referendum date set by mid-2027

No probability is given for the three paths.

The other side

A yes would open phased access to the EU single market for Andorran firms, including financial services [1]. The government has tied ratification to the vote, so a clear result settles the question either way [4].

Connected in Strature

Sources

4 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. EU, Andorra and San Marino sign association agreement. Eunews · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. Andorra Endorses EU Referendum Draft, Eyes 2026 Association Approval. Alto · 19 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. EU Council Approves Andorra-San Marino Association Agreement Text. Alto · 16 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Llum verda a l'acord d'associació d'Andorra amb la UE. VilaWeb · 15 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks