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World risk · Regulation and compliance

San Marino's EU association agreement is still not applied by Nov 2027

The test By 3 Nov 2027, provisional application of the EU association agreement signed on 19 Oct 2026 has not begun for San Marino.

Not under way · Confidence: low · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10

This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?

Using this page
  1. Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
  2. Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
  3. Use the calendar for the dates to watch.

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Likelihood
4Elevated steady this month
Impact
3Low steady this month
Breadth4
Depth1
Duration4
Hard to substitute4
Canada pointNot added0

Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.

Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.

What changed

Dated, newest first

  1. Agreement signed 19 Oct 2026; provisional application authorised; European Parliament consent required; provisional application once Andorra and San Marino complete ratification [1]

Why it matters

The EU signed its association agreement with San Marino and Andorra on 19 Oct 2026, and the Council has authorised provisional application. The European Parliament must consent first, and provisional application begins once Andorra and San Marino complete their ratification procedures. Each step has slipped before: a Bulgarian block over a San Marino bank sale held the text until July 2026.

Why Likelihood 4 Pushes: European Parliament consent and San Marino's procedures still to come; a months-long block in 2026; mixed agreement. Brakes: provisional application already authorised; a year of window.

The other facts on file (4)
  • Bulgaria's block over a failed purchase of Banca di San Marino; Coreper approval 15 Jul 2026; mixed agreement [3] (15 Jul 2026)
  • European Parliament may take two to three months (Espot) [2] (16 Jul 2026)
  • IMF: faster implementation could lift growth; 2025 growth 1.2%; debt 60.8% of GDP; NPL ratio 53.1% in 2023 [4] (25 Nov 2025)
  • Espot said San Marino has a technically smoother route [5] (19 Dec 2025)

Where it sits

ITALYCROATIASLOVENIA11. San Marino's EU association agreement is still not applied by Nov 2027: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 San Marino EU dealnot appliedLow impact · possibleSAN MARINO EU DEAL NOT APPLIED0200 kmat 44°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).
ITALYCROATIA11. San Marino's EU association agreement is still not applied by Nov 2027: Low impact · possible (placed at the country)1 San Marino EUdeal not appliedSAN MARINO EU DEAL NOT APPLIED0200 kmat 44°NMap data: Natural Earth (public domain).

How it spreads

Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.

If

By 3 Nov 2027, provisional application of the EU association agreement signed on 19 Oct 2026 has not begun for San Marino.

Not under way

Channels 4 on the card

  1. CanadaNo Canadian loss sourced.
  2. Single market accessDelay keeps San Marino's firms outside the extended internal market the agreement provides [1].
  3. Banks and financeFinancial-services access is phased and needs supervisory assessment; delay postpones it [1][4].
  4. InvestmentThe IMF links faster implementation to growth and foreign investment [4].

Sectors 1

  • Banks and insurers

Countries 3

  • San Marino primary
  • Italy
  • Andorra

Who is exposed

No figure on file: San Marino, Italy, Andorra.

Sectors
Banks and insurers

Three scenarios and their signposts

  1. S1

    Applied

    The European Parliament consents in early 2027 and provisional application begins for San Marino by mid-2027.

  2. S2

    Slow

    Consent comes late in 2027 and application starts after the window.

  3. S3

    Blocked again

    A member state or a dispute stalls the process again.

The signposts of each scenario
PathSignpost
S1a European Parliament consent vote
S2no committee vote by spring 2027
S3a new objection raised in the Council

No probability is given for the three paths.

Dates to watch

Calendar

The dates to watch

A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.

  1. 3 Nov 2027 Date on which the event is judged [1] Declared · Strature date

    Remind me

Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.

SourceStrature world-risk card; the dates cite the sources below.
Exhibit R-3 · SAN MARINO · strature.net

The other side

Andorra's Head of Government said in December 2025 that San Marino has a technically smoother route (Alto) [5]; the Council has already authorised provisional application [1].

Connected in Strature

Sources

5 sources, numbered as the text cites them

  1. EU, Andorra and San Marino sign association agreement. Eunews · 19 Oct 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  2. EU Council Approves Andorra-San Marino Association Agreement Text. Alto · 16 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  3. Llum verda a l'acord d'associació d'Andorra amb la UE. VilaWeb · 15 Jul 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  4. Republic of San Marino: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation. International Monetary Fund · 25 Nov 2025 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
  5. Andorra Endorses EU Referendum Draft, Eyes 2026 Association Approval. Alto · 19 Dec 2025 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026

Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks