Floods kill 100 or more people in Kenya, Uganda or Tanzania in one rainy season
The test Between 3 Nov 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, floods or landslides kill 100 or more people in one of Kenya, Uganda or Tanzania within one rainy season (October-December 2026 or March-May 2027), by a government, police or UN count.
Not under way · Confidence: medium · Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · Scores from 1 to 10
This page answers: What could happen, how it is scored, and who is exposed?
Using this page
- Read the two scores: Likelihood and Impact are kept apart.
- Check what is happening, each fact with its source.
- Use the calendar for the dates to watch.
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Impact is the average of the four parts, rounded, plus one point when Canada is directly hit on two or more channels, up to 10.
Two separate scales from 1 to 10. Strature never multiplies or merges them.
What changed
Dated, newest first
- NOAA kept a strong-to-very-strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 [5]
Why it matters
East Africa's regional climate centre expects a wetter-than-normal October-December 2026 as El Niño strengthens. Floods have killed more than 100 people in one season three times since 2024: in Kenya and Tanzania in 2024 and in Kenya in March 2026. Rain forecasts are not death counts, so the case leans towards the event without being the base case.
Why Likelihood 6 Pushes: an official wet forecast, a strong El Niño, recent precedents. Brakes: forecasts are of rain, not deaths; warnings and evacuations. Leaning towards it, short of a base case.
The other facts on file (4)
- ICPAC GHACOF-74: a high chance of more than 400 mm of rain over central Kenya, the Lake Victoria basin and western Tanzania in October-December 2026; analogue years 1997 and 2023 [1] (18 Aug 2026)
- Kenya flash floods from 6 Mar 2026 killed at least 108 people (National Police Service) and displaced more than 2,700 families [2] (29 Mar 2026)
- Kenya's March-May 2024 long rains killed 179 people by 1 May 2024 (government figure) [3] (1 May 2024)
- Tanzania's prime minister told Parliament floods and landslides killed 155 people and affected more than 200,000; roads, bridges and railways destroyed [4] (25 Apr 2024)
Where it sits
How it spreads
Sample, no data on file. No cited flows by country on file for this risk.
Between 3 Nov 2026 and 30 Jun 2027, floods or landslides kill 100 or more people in one of Kenya, Uganda or Tanzania within one rainy season (October-December 2026 or March-May 2027), by a government, police or UN count.
Not under wayThree scenarios and their signposts
- S1
Wet but managed
Heavy rain, deaths below 100 in each country.
- S2
A 2024 repeat
One country passes 100 deaths in the short rains.
- S3
Two seasons
Both rainy seasons flood.
| Path | Signpost |
|---|---|
| S1 | No national disaster declaration by end-December 2026 |
| S2 | A police or government toll above 50 by mid-December 2026 |
| S3 | A wet March-May 2027 outlook at GHACOF in February 2027 |
No probability is given for the three paths.
Dates to watch
The dates to watch
A dot is a day, a bar a month or a year; a hollow mark is tentative. The line marks today.
- Mar 2027 Long-rains season (March-May 2027) [3] Tentative · Window
- 30 Jun 2027 End of the scored window [1] Declared · Strature date
Sign in, with alerts on, for an email 7 days and 1 day before.
The other side
A wet season refills dams and lifts harvests (Strature's view).
Connected in Strature
- Kenya
- Uganda
- Tanzania
- Ethiopia
- Rwanda
- A strong El Niño through winter 2026-27 cuts harvests and water supply Driven by: The El Niño behind the wet seasonal forecast.
- Kenya rations fuel or its petrol cover falls below 10 days Shares a channel: Cut corridors slow fuel deliveries inland.
- Uganda misses its June 2027 first-oil date Shares a channel: Uganda's oil works use the same flood-prone routes.
Sources
5 sources, numbered as the text cites them
- The Greater Horn of Africa is expected to experience a wetter than normal October-December (OND) 2026 season as El Niño strengthens. ICPAC · 18 Aug 2026 · International body · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Kenya faces deadly flooding with at least 108 people killed. Africanews · 29 Mar 2026 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- Kenya floods destroyed homes and infrastructure, killed 179 people. Bol News · 1 May 2024 · News · confidence low · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- At least 155 killed in Tanzania as heavy rains pound East Africa. Al Jazeera · 25 Apr 2024 · News · confidence medium · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
- ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions (ENSO diagnostic discussion). NOAA Climate Prediction Center · 8 Oct 2026 · Official · confidence high · retrieved 3 Nov 2026
Reviewed 3 Nov 2026 · version 1 · last change: first review · All risks